If you need to bet the MNF game, take the Cowboys -6′, but only nominally.

Bowling starting tomorrow night:

Tuesday  7pm  Minnesota  +10  Casual

Tuesday  10:15pm  Baylor  +7′   Casual

Wednesday  2pm  Northwestern  +5  Casual

Wednesday  5:30pm  WVU  +3  Casual  (system actually says Miami)

Santa Claus is coming to town!

Today should be a good day.

There are a couple games the public is loading up on that we’re steering clear of.  If we followed our system all the time, we’d take Jacksonville and Cleveland today…  but, alas, we don’t have it in us to do so.

So here we are:

1pm  Bears  +3   Solid  (Bears are good.  This will be a good game to watch.)

1pm  Vikings +7  Casual  (This all depends on whether the Vikings starting safety plays or not.)

1pm  Panthers  +3  Casual  (Not super confident about this, but Panthers have been looking good lately.)

1pm  Dolphins  +4′  Casual

4:25pm  Saints  -3  Nominal  (We don’t feel good about this game.  System pick.)

Sunday Funday?

The public is loading up on a lot of games that we tend to agree with them on, so we’re in a quandary.  We’re being selective.

1pm  Eagles  +5  Casual  (Weather should keep the score low meaning five points is a lot.)

1pm  Bears  +5  Solid  (Bears get points at home on a frozen field.)

4:25pm  Chargers  +3  Casual  (Carr looked horrible last week.  Injury may be more limiting than initially thought.)

8:30pm  Cowboys  -7  Casual  (Cowboys had one bad game in bad weather.)


Sunday Funday

Today is a big day!

1pm  Titans  -1  Nominal  (Broncos traveling east for second straight week.)

1pm  Browns  +5  Nominal  (RG3 is back.)

1pm  Chargers  +1  Nominal  (Panthers suck.)

1pm  Dolphins  +2  Solid  (Phins can run the ball well.  Cardinals still overrated and traveling east for early game.  Playing in humidity.)

1pm  Bears  +7′  High stakes  (Bears aren’t bad.  Lions aren’t thaaat good.)


Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.