Alabama -6 casual (The public is backing Clemson. The ACC has been great in bowl games. SEC has been meh. But, we think Bama has value.)
If you need to bet the MNF game, take the Cowboys -6′, but only nominally.
Bowling starting tomorrow night:
Tuesday 7pm Minnesota +10 Casual
Tuesday 10:15pm Baylor +7′ Casual
Wednesday 2pm Northwestern +5 Casual
Wednesday 5:30pm WVU +3 Casual (system actually says Miami)
Today should be a good day.
There are a couple games the public is loading up on that we’re steering clear of. If we followed our system all the time, we’d take Jacksonville and Cleveland today… but, alas, we don’t have it in us to do so.
So here we are:
1pm Bears +3 Solid (Bears are good. This will be a good game to watch.)
1pm Vikings +7 Casual (This all depends on whether the Vikings starting safety plays or not.)
1pm Panthers +3 Casual (Not super confident about this, but Panthers have been looking good lately.)
1pm Dolphins +4′ Casual
4:25pm Saints -3 Nominal (We don’t feel good about this game. System pick.)
The public is loading up on a lot of games that we tend to agree with them on, so we’re in a quandary. We’re being selective.
1pm Eagles +5 Casual (Weather should keep the score low meaning five points is a lot.)
1pm Bears +5 Solid (Bears get points at home on a frozen field.)
4:25pm Chargers +3 Casual (Carr looked horrible last week. Injury may be more limiting than initially thought.)
8:30pm Cowboys -7 Casual (Cowboys had one bad game in bad weather.)
Today is a big day!
1pm Titans -1 Nominal (Broncos traveling east for second straight week.)
1pm Browns +5 Nominal (RG3 is back.)
1pm Chargers +1 Nominal (Panthers suck.)
1pm Dolphins +2 Solid (Phins can run the ball well. Cardinals still overrated and traveling east for early game. Playing in humidity.)
1pm Bears +7′ High stakes (Bears aren’t bad. Lions aren’t thaaat good.)
We took it on the chin yesterday. Has us gun shy heading into tonight. But experience tells us we’ve been here before. Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.
Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…
8:30pm Jets Pick Casual
Early Look At Bowl Games
We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now. There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries. Or coaches who leave programs without warning.
But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:
West Virginia +1 vs. Miami. Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal. They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game. WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field. Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent. WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth. WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them. There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses. This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.
Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson. Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10. They only lost one game. The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them. Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good. This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get. When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.
Penn State +7 vs. USC. Really? USC is favored by seven over Penn State? Seven!? Incredible. This line will likely drop quickly. The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven. But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.