As we mentioned going into last week we felt there were a lot of games that Vegas was giving the public. We tend to shade the public here which is why we kept all our predictions in the small nominal to casual range and attached a disclaimer on our lack of confidence. Vegas at times like to allow the public a chance to win early to get them hooked for the long haul.
Here’s how we’re doing so far:
Nominal = 2 – 4
Casual = 1 -2
Yawn. No worries mates.
Tonights NFL opener is an intriguing matchup. The Patriots are not like normal NFL teams in the fact they make an effort to actually pile it on when they’re winning. This allows them to cover larger spreads than most NFL teams. The Chiefs are a very good team with an average QB. The QB position and the Pats playing at home lends itself to the Pats covering.
Perhaps this is our anti-Tom Brady bias, but we just feel that Tom Brady has gotten away with his average deep game for too long. The Chiefs are good enough on defense to take away the Pats running and short game and force the Pats to go deep more often. This is where Brady is an average QB. With Julian Edelman’s injury, the departures of Martellus Bennett and Legarrette Blount, and speedy Malcolm Mitchell slowed by a knee injury, we simply think the Chiefs not only can cover this game, but win it outright.
Betting against the Patriots is never a fun proposition, so we’ll temper our expectations to a casual play only.
8:30pm Kansas City +9 Casual