Sunday Funday!

Posting this during the USC – Texas game.  Texas deserves to win, yet so deserves to lose.  Kids.


1pm  Jacksonville Jaguars  +3  Solid

1pm  New Orleans Saints  +7  Casual

1pm  Chicago Bears  +7  Casual

1pm  Cleveland Browns  +7′  Casual

4:25pm  San Francisco 49ers  +14  Nominal

4:25pm  Denver Broncos  +3  Solid

4:25pm  LA Rams  -3  Casual



Saturday’s Slate

Our system produced too many games and we had a hard time narrowing it down to a more manageable level.  We chose games spread throughout the day to lead to a more entertaining slate.

This early in the season we tend to have more nominal plays than anything else.

Noon  Akron  +11  Nominal

3:30pm  Boston College  +14  Nominal

4pm  Missouri  -7  Nominal

7:30pm  Kentucky  +7  Casual

*8pm  Rice  +23  Casual

*8pm  Miami (Ohio)  -4   Casual


First, we apologize for the Akron pick.  Our system works best when run closer to game time or at least same day as it takes betting trends into consideration.  If we had run this today, Akron would not have been picked.  All other games still look good.

*In fact, Rice is now +23 and Miami (Ohio) dropped to -4.  Both better than where we were last night so we did a little extra on these and changed both to Casual plays.  The Mizzou line went to -6, but we missed it.  We’ve also added in two additional games:

8pm  Louisville  +3′   Casual

8:30pm  Texas  +17′  Casual  (We know, we know…)

Monday Night Football Double Header

Tonight’s games are too close to call.  Our two nominal picks are only because our system came up inconclusive.  Our system did produce a casual play on the total of the early game.  Sorry for this late post.

Here you go:

7:10pm  Minnesota Vikings  -3  Nominal

7:10pm  Vikings/Saints Under 47′  Casual

10:20pm  LA Chargers  +3  Nominal

Sunday Funday!

It is finally here!  Our favorite day of the year!

First, let’s clean up yesterday.  We expected WVU to cover that spread.  It seemed like they were giving us that one, but we put a nominal play the other way to make a record of it so we can learn from it and adjust our algorithm.

Our record thus far:

  • College Games
    • Nominal 3-5-1
    • Casual 2-3
  • NFL
    • Casual 1-0
  • Totals
    • Nominal 3-5-1
    • Casual 3-3

Now on to today’s games.

1pm  Chicago Bears  +7  Solid  (Super Bowl hangover history matches up w/ our system.)

1pm  Washington Redskins  +1  Nominal

1pm  Detroit Lions  +2  Casual

1pm  New York Jets  +7′  Nominal

1pm  Oakland Raiders  +1′  Nominal  (goes against our system)

1pm  Houston Texans  -6  Nominal  (goes against our system)

4:05pm  Indianapolis Colts  +4  Nominal

4:25pm  San Francisco 49ers  +6  Solid

8:30pm  Dallas Cowboys  -4  Nominal  (Giants seem like the pick, but we’ll stick by this.)


NFL Thursday

As we mentioned going into last week we felt there were a lot of games that Vegas was giving the public.  We tend to shade the public here which is why we kept all our predictions in the small nominal to casual range and attached a disclaimer on our lack of confidence.  Vegas at times like to allow the public a chance to win early to get them hooked for the long haul.

Here’s how we’re doing so far:

Nominal = 2 – 4

Casual = 1 -2

Yawn.  No worries mates.

Tonights NFL opener is an intriguing matchup.  The Patriots are not like normal NFL teams in the fact they make an effort to actually pile it on when they’re winning.  This allows them to cover larger spreads than most NFL teams.  The Chiefs are a very good team with an average QB.  The QB position and the Pats playing at home lends itself to the Pats covering.

Perhaps this is our anti-Tom Brady bias, but we just feel that Tom Brady has gotten away with his average deep game for too long.  The Chiefs are good enough on defense to take away the Pats running and short game and force the Pats to go deep more often.  This is where Brady is an average QB.  With Julian Edelman’s injury, the departures of Martellus Bennett and Legarrette Blount, and speedy Malcolm Mitchell slowed by a knee injury, we simply think the Chiefs not only can cover this game, but win it outright.

Betting against the Patriots is never a fun proposition, so we’ll temper our expectations to a casual play only.

8:30pm  Kansas City  +9  Casual


2017 Football Is Here!

We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year.  The first week is often strange.  We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in.  Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.

Just a reminder.  If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment.  Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.  There’s no such thing as a sure thing.

We avoided last nights games for a reason.  We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments.  That is an uneasy place to be.  But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.

Here is what our ratings mean:

Load up = almost too good to be true.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20.  Rarity.

High stakes = very confident.  Great times to catch up if behind on the year.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.

Solid bet = solid plays.  $5

Casual bet = these happen most often.  Just something to spice things up.  $1.50

Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game.  Meh.  $0.50

Okay, now for the games:

Friday Night Lights

8pm  Rutgers  +27′   Nominal

8pm  Florida Atlantic  +9  Nominal  (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)

9pm  Utah State  +27′  Nominal

9:30pm  Northern Illinois  +2′  Casual


Noon  Maryland  +19  Nominal  (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)

12:20pm  North Carolina  -12′  Nominal  (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)

3:30pm  Northwestern  -24  Casual

3:30pm  Florida  +4′  Nominal

8pm  Florida State  +7   Casual  (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)