Sunday Funday!

It is finally here!  Our favorite day of the year!

First, let’s clean up yesterday.  We expected WVU to cover that spread.  It seemed like they were giving us that one, but we put a nominal play the other way to make a record of it so we can learn from it and adjust our algorithm.

Our record thus far:

  • College Games
    • Nominal 3-5-1
    • Casual 2-3
  • NFL
    • Casual 1-0
  • Totals
    • Nominal 3-5-1
    • Casual 3-3

Now on to today’s games.

1pm  Chicago Bears  +7  Solid  (Super Bowl hangover history matches up w/ our system.)

1pm  Washington Redskins  +1  Nominal

1pm  Detroit Lions  +2  Casual

1pm  New York Jets  +7′  Nominal

1pm  Oakland Raiders  +1′  Nominal  (goes against our system)

1pm  Houston Texans  -6  Nominal  (goes against our system)

4:05pm  Indianapolis Colts  +4  Nominal

4:25pm  San Francisco 49ers  +6  Solid

8:30pm  Dallas Cowboys  -4  Nominal  (Giants seem like the pick, but we’ll stick by this.)

 

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2017 Football Is Here!

We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year.  The first week is often strange.  We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in.  Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.

Just a reminder.  If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment.  Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.  There’s no such thing as a sure thing.

We avoided last nights games for a reason.  We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments.  That is an uneasy place to be.  But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.

Here is what our ratings mean:

Load up = almost too good to be true.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20.  Rarity.

High stakes = very confident.  Great times to catch up if behind on the year.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.

Solid bet = solid plays.  $5

Casual bet = these happen most often.  Just something to spice things up.  $1.50

Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game.  Meh.  $0.50

Okay, now for the games:

Friday Night Lights

8pm  Rutgers  +27′   Nominal

8pm  Florida Atlantic  +9  Nominal  (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)

9pm  Utah State  +27′  Nominal

9:30pm  Northern Illinois  +2′  Casual

Saturday

Noon  Maryland  +19  Nominal  (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)

12:20pm  North Carolina  -12′  Nominal  (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)

3:30pm  Northwestern  -24  Casual

3:30pm  Florida  +4′  Nominal

8pm  Florida State  +7   Casual  (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)

 

 

 

Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

Sunday Funday!

Winner winner chicken dinner!  Yesterday was a good day.  $$$

We love when our system starts having days like that.  They become more frequent as the season progresses.  Today’s games:

9:30am  Redskins  +3  Casual  (Josh Norman’s return is big here.)

1pm  Bills  +7  Casual  (going against Brady makes one’s stomach turn.)

1pm  Bucs  +1′  Solid  (We’ve been high on the Bucs all year and paid the price.  Doubling down.)

4:25pm  Packers  +3  Casual  (The Packers patch work defense will need to hold up on the back end to have a chance here.)

4:25  Packers/Falcons Under 53  Casual  (see above.)

8:30pm  Eagles  +5  Solid  (Eagles defense is pretty good.  Should be a close game.)

Saturday’s Slate

The public has been winning these Thursday night contests.  Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends.  Something to keep in mind moving forward.

There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love.  At least, not yet.

Noon  Penn State  -13′  Casual  (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win.  But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)

Noon  East Carolina  -7  Casual

Noon  Central Florida  +10  Casual

3:30pm  Texas  +4  Nominal  (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)

3:30pm  Florida Atlantic  +21′  Casual  (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play.  But, we stick with our system for now.)

3:30pm  Army  +7  Casual  (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)

7pm  Marshall  +15′  Casual  (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)

7:15pm  South Carolina  +14  Casual

7:15pm  Ole Miss  +5  Nominal  (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed.  This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)

10:45pm  Oregon State  +13  Casual

11pm  Arizona  +5  Casual   (Arizona is bad.  Standford has been overrated.)

 

 

 

Saturday’s Slate

We do not have a ton of games on Saturday, but we’ve enough to keep you interested.  We’re really looking forward to a great Sunday.

For Saturday:

Noon   NC State   +18   Nominal

3:30pm   Akron   +12   Solid

3:30pm   Miami   -7   Casual

7pm   UConn   +20   Casual

7pm   Rice   +3′   Nominal

 

Sunday Funday!!!

We’ll be watching the Ryder Cup today, but we still have picks.

The Broncos showed how to beat Cam Newton and the League is following the blueprint.  The Falcons getting points at home is too good to be true.  The Broncos traveling to muggy Florida and giving points is another one too good to be true.  The Titans continue to get no respect.  The Rams fall into that category too, but we’re walking away from that game.  We were on it earlier in the week.  We were leaning Bills too, but backing off on it as well.

Here you go…

1pm  Titans  +4  Nominal

1pm  Falcons  +3  Solid

4:05pm  Bucs  +3′  Casual

Great day to parlay the above and monitor closely.  You could hedge the late game if things are going well.

UPDATE:

Sorry.  We should have bet the Rams as we alluded to.  And we’re now done with Tampa Bay.  We’ve been too high on them all year.  We’ve been smart getting off the Panthers early, but disappointed on our TB decision.

Anyway…

Sunday Night:

Chiefs  +3′  Casual