Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

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Sunday Funday!

Yesterday was a fun introduction to football.  Great games with some big plays.  That Oklahoma – Houston game was shaping up to be one of the best games of all time, but the officials blew three huge calls all in Houston’s favor.  That tarnishes it a bit for us.  You know there will always be blown calls, you just hope they balance out or don’t impact the game too much.  But sometimes they do.  Anyways…  after our picks yesterday, here is where we stand for the season.

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     3-3
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    4-4

Based on our money scale, it equates to +$4 (includes juice deductions).

Don’t forget tonight’s game.   We casually got in on Texas at +4, but most places are at +3′ right now.  This game is weird to us.  We only shading the public.  It seems ND should be favored by more even though it is in Austin.  The value would seem to be on ND’s side and the public agrees.  But, how often is the public right?  So we’re going by way of Texas.

Also, a Monday preview.  Ole Miss +5′ – casual.

Recap:

Sunday  7:30pm  Texas  +4  casual.

Monday 8:00pm  Ole Miss  +5′  casual.

Saturday’s Slate

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        0-0
  • Casual bets     1-0
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    1-1

The biggest bets you win are the losses you didn’t play.  🙂

Early in the season we’ll have few games we feel strongly about.  There are too many unknowns.  Looking at tomorrow, here is where we’re at:

Noon   Bowling Green   +28  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Kent State  +22′  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Wisconsin  +11′  Solid

5:30pm  UNC  +3 ‘ Casual

8:00pm  New Mexico State  +9’  Casual Bet Only

9:00pm  Auburn  +9  Casual Bet Only

SUNDAY PREVIEW

7:30pm  Texas  +4  Casual Bet Only

 

Thursday’s Shame. Friday Fun.

We’re ashamed we missed tonight’s games.  We’re out of sync during the beginning of the season and didn’t adapt well.  We try to wait until game day since things can change so rapidly.

As we write this, our leanings look good.  Casual only as we normally are early in the year, but frustrating since we missed out on our own end let alone what we would have suggested to you.  Our sincere apologies.

With 12 minutes to go Vandi is up by 10.  All we can say is only 9% of the betting public went with Vandi yet the line kept going against them.  That means the high rollers went the way of Vandi and we go the way of the high rollers.  Who knows where the game ends up, but we would have gone casually with Vandi -5.

We were leaning Florida International, but that line went weird.  Indiana jumped to -10 with a  majority of bets, but only 57%.  We’re not sure where we would have ended up here, but we’re guessing an initial casual bet would have dipped to a nominal one for Florida International.

We were leaning Oregon State too.  We feel sick to our stomachs.

Live and learn.

So we jump ahead to tomorrow now.  Earlier than we like….

Friday 9pm EST  Kansas State +15  Casual bet only

 

NCAA Championship Game

We finished the year strong and are sitting healthy.  We’ve a year of perspective to draw upon.  As many of you know, we typically shade the public because when the public goes one way, they create value the other direction.

However, sometimes the public is just flat out correct.  This happens more so in college than it does in the pros.  In the National Championship Game, early betting is going the way of the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The line started at 6 and is now up to 7.  Once it goes over 7 we envision money coming in on the Clemson Tigers.

We would normally shade towards Clemson in this situation generically speaking.  However, even though Clemson performed better than our expectations against Oklahoma and looked impressive, we provide some context.

Clemson plays in a weak conference.  The #2 and #3 teams (UNC and Florida State) in that conference were decimated in their bowl contests.  Oklahoma may have been the last team standing in the Big XII’s round-robbin schedule, but they were likely the 3rd best team in the conference.  Baylor was the best, but suffered an unusual amount of injuries to key personnel.  TCU was the 2nd best when they had Trevone Boykin, but losing him for a brief stretch proved their undoing.

If this was the old BCS system and it was one game with no playoffs between Clemson and Alabama, we’d take Clemson and the seven points.  Our reasoning is Clemson would have all these weeks to prepare for the game against one opponent.  But with Clemson having to prepare first for Oklahoma and only one week to primarily focus on Alabama, we feel the Jimmy’s and Joe’s will prove even more important than the X’s and O’s.

That all being said, we feel the line is about where it should be.  We suggest placing a casual bet on Alabama now before the line gets greater than 7.  If it drops below 7, we suggest upping your bet a bit to get that value.

Alabama Crimson Tide    -7   (casual bet only unless the line drops)