Sunday Funday!

The public rolled yesterday which means we didn’t.  There will be days like that.  We’re glad we held off other games we were watching as the public ran away with a lot of them.  Sometimes Vegas gets it wrong.  We wonder if it is at times intentional.  Give the addicts a taste of victory to draw them in further.

We’ve been quite busy with an office move and haven’t had time to share more commentary lately or to update our standings.  We hope to by next weekend.  One of the games we were on earlier in the week was the Cardinals at the Bills.  Early action was on the Bills bring the line down.  Now most betters are going with the Cardinals but the line hasn’t gone back up which tells us some big bets are going the way of the Bills.  Our system says take the Bills, but we were on the Cardinals earlier in the week.  We’re now just steering clear of the game.

The Titans still aren’t getting any respect from the betting public, but being at home for an early game against a west coast team bodes well.

We don’t like the Redskins team and neither does the public, but this is precisely the time you back them.  There is value there even if it is difficult to fathom.  Nobody ever said gambling was logical did they?

The Steelers always have their betters, but favored on the road against a decent Eagles team is comical.  Should be a close game.  A Steelers win by a FG doesn’t cover.

Here you go:

Titans +1 Casual

Redskins +3′ Casual

Redskins/Giants Under 46 Casual

Eagles +4 Solid

Steelers/Eagles Under 47 Casual

Rams +6 Casual

Rams/Bucs Over 41′ Casual

Bears +7 nominal

Saints -3 nominal

Falcons/Saints Under 53′ nominal

We only are betting nominally on the night games to provide some interest.  No strong feelings at this time.  We don’t like the Saints, but the public doesn’t either.  We’re surprised they’re giving up three points, but our system says to take them.  If this were a day game we’d steer clear, but being the only game on we want to make it more interesting.

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Saturday’s Slate

Listen, we’ve a lot going on so we don’t have time for commentary, but we’re providing our picks.  Pay attention to them.

Florida International +7  casual

UConn -3  casual

Rutgers +14 casual

Colorado State +17 casual

UTEP  +11′ casual

Marshall +28 casual

UCLA  +3′  casual

 

 

Thursday/Friday

Hey!  We’ve been traveling over the past week and had connectivity issues while we were out.  Here are tonight’s and tomorrow’s games.  We’ll update our standings later.

Good luck!

Thursday

7:30pm  Georgia Tech +10′  nominal

8:25pm  Patriots +1 nominal

Friday

7:30pm  Eastern Michigan  +3  solid

8:00pm  TCU  -20  casual

9:00pm  Southern Cal  +3  nominal

Monday Manifesto

Since last year’s playoffs we’ve been on an NFL tear.  Although we specialize in NFL games, we recognize our current trend is unsustainable.  In our last 16 NFL games, we’re 15-1-1.  Here we are for this season both college and pros.

  • Load up 1-0
  • High stakes 1-0
  • Solid bets 3-2
  • Casual bets 9-9
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets 14-12
    +$32.5

Monday Night Football

Tonight has a double-header.  Just as Thursday night, we’ve a split.  Our football brains say Steelers while our system says Redskins.  We learned our lesson on Thursday that our system is smarter than us.  On the later game we find value in the 49ers at home.  So this is where we are:

7:10pm  Redskins  +2   Nominal

10:20pm  49ers  +2′   Casual

 

 

Sunday Funday!

The Big XII had some bad luck yesterday.  Oklahoma State had a BS untamed down ran against them that shouldn’t have occurred and gave up a game-winning/losing hail Mary and lateral to Central Michigan.  Then TCU stormed back against Arkansas and scored a nail in the coffin TD in the final minute to have it called back by a controversial call saying the WR who had been forced out of bounds by the defender by an inch had gone out on his own making him ineligible to touch the pass first.  They then had a game winning chip shot FG kicked too low and blocked.  TCU went on to lose in OT.  Once teams think the game is over and shut it down, it’s difficult to get that edge back.

We did well only because we loaded up on Vanderbilt.  That -3 line was so good I thought something might be up, but the public actually was going way in on MTSU.  Crazy!  Here’s where we’re at on the year.

Summary – for description see the About link at the top of the screen.

  • Load up            1-0
  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        2-2
  • Casual bets     7-9
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    10-12
  • +$24.1

Best thing about our system is it allows you to have fun even when you lose a majority of games (which won’t be a year long thing) as long as you win the big ones (which will be a year long thing).

NFL SUNDAY

1pm  NY Jets  +1′  Casual

1pm  Jaguars  +6  High stakes

4:05pm  Dolphins  +10′  Casual

4:25pm  Cowboys  +1  Nominal

8:30pm  Patriots  +7′  Solid

NFL Kickoff… Carolina’s revenge?

Those who were with us on our infamous playoff run know how high we were on Carolina as a team even though in the one-game format advised taking Denver.  We stated in a multiple game format we’d take Carolina.  Here we are…

We’ve a systematic way of making our picks which are based on value.  We typically avoid using strictly our football observations.  We normally have unanimity in our selections at the site, but not on this game.  Our system says the value is on Denver, but our football opinion says Carolina wipes the floor with them.

This is similar to our Notre Dame – Texas debate where we correctly went with our system and picked Texas.  But that was unanimous.  This isn’t.

But it is the first NFL game of the season and we need to make a pick.  Sometimes you have to get away from the system.  As editor, I’m the tie breaker.

Thursday  8:30pm  Carolina -3    Casual Only

Weekend Recap

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     4-4
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    5-5
  • +$3.85

We felt good about Ole Miss until they went on a turnover binge.  Not sure if FSU just got them that flustered, if it manifested itself among the team.  All in all a solid week.  We felt good about a few more games than we had the courage to move into the Solid category, but this early in the season we’re still feeling things out.

The NFL Season kicks off Thursday.  This is shaping up to one of those rare instances our own football opinion will go against our betting opinion.  We’ve been quite good about being objective in our analysis, but we feel strongly that Carolina is a better team than Denver.  Unfortunately so doesn’t much of the public.  The line is currently Carolina -3 and it may go further.  We’ve not taken an official stance yet, though, so time to come to our senses.

The way we’re leaning on NFL Sunday’s picks, readers are likely to roll their eyes, so our Thursday pick is important in keeping our credibility.  We hope to make our Thursday pick by tomorrow night.  Stay tuned!