Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

Sunday Funday after 5-0 Saturday!

Give us a little whoop whoop!

We tend to finish strong on the season as betters tend to follow certain narratives which creates value for us.

We went 5-0 yesterday, but we weren’t aggressive with it.  Nor will we be too aggressive today.

1pm  Bears  +1′   Casual  (Not sure how the Bears are an underdog at home against a bad 49ers team.)

1pm  Texans  +7  Casual  (Packers are one of those teams that the betting public always over values.  The Texans defense is solid against the pass.  This will be a dog fight.  Only way Packers cover is a defensive or special teams TD.)

1pm  Jaguars  +3′  Casual  (Broncos traveling east for an early game.)

1pm  Rams  +14   Casual  (Patriots aren’t blowing people away this year.  14 points is a ton.)

4:25pm  Chargers  -3′   Nominal  (System pick.  Not sure about this one.)

8:30pm  Panthers  +7′  Nominal  (Two overrated QBs going head to head.  7 points is a lot.)

 

Saturday’s Slate

We finally learned to lay off the primetime games heading into the weekend.

Noon Florida  -10′  Casual

Noon  Indiana  +7′  Solid

Noon  Purdue  +14  Solid

3:30pm  Georgia Tech  +14  Casual

3:30pm  Army  +14  Casual

3:30pm  Missouri  -3′  Nominal

7pm  Hawaii  +18  Nominal

10pm  Arizona  +16  Nominal

Saturday’s Slate

We’ve finally learned our Thursday night lesson.  The public will win on Thursday more often than not.  Saturdays, though, are another matter.

Noon   Illinois   +8′   Casual

12:30pm   Pitt   +5   Casual

3:30pm  Clemson   -27   Casual

3:30pm   Fresno State   +16′   Casual

4pm   Arizona   +15   Casual

4pm   SMU   +3   Casual

7pm  NC State   +7   Solid

8pm   East Carolina   +10   Casual

8pm   LSU   +8   Solid

8pm   Ohio State   -16′   Casual

10:15pm   Utah State   +4′   Casual

Parlay Illinois, Pitt, NC State, and LSU.

Sunday Funday!

Winner winner chicken dinner!  Yesterday was a good day.  $$$

We love when our system starts having days like that.  They become more frequent as the season progresses.  Today’s games:

9:30am  Redskins  +3  Casual  (Josh Norman’s return is big here.)

1pm  Bills  +7  Casual  (going against Brady makes one’s stomach turn.)

1pm  Bucs  +1′  Solid  (We’ve been high on the Bucs all year and paid the price.  Doubling down.)

4:25pm  Packers  +3  Casual  (The Packers patch work defense will need to hold up on the back end to have a chance here.)

4:25  Packers/Falcons Under 53  Casual  (see above.)

8:30pm  Eagles  +5  Solid  (Eagles defense is pretty good.  Should be a close game.)

Saturday’s Slate

The public has been winning these Thursday night contests.  Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends.  Something to keep in mind moving forward.

There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love.  At least, not yet.

Noon  Penn State  -13′  Casual  (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win.  But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)

Noon  East Carolina  -7  Casual

Noon  Central Florida  +10  Casual

3:30pm  Texas  +4  Nominal  (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)

3:30pm  Florida Atlantic  +21′  Casual  (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play.  But, we stick with our system for now.)

3:30pm  Army  +7  Casual  (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)

7pm  Marshall  +15′  Casual  (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)

7:15pm  South Carolina  +14  Casual

7:15pm  Ole Miss  +5  Nominal  (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed.  This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)

10:45pm  Oregon State  +13  Casual

11pm  Arizona  +5  Casual   (Arizona is bad.  Standford has been overrated.)

 

 

 

Saturday’s Slate

We do not have a ton of games on Saturday, but we’ve enough to keep you interested.  We’re really looking forward to a great Sunday.

For Saturday:

Noon   NC State   +18   Nominal

3:30pm   Akron   +12   Solid

3:30pm   Miami   -7   Casual

7pm   UConn   +20   Casual

7pm   Rice   +3′   Nominal