Posting this during the USC – Texas game. Texas deserves to win, yet so deserves to lose. Kids.
NFL…
1pm Jacksonville Jaguars +3 Solid
1pm New Orleans Saints +7 Casual
1pm Chicago Bears +7 Casual
1pm Cleveland Browns +7′ Casual
4:25pm San Francisco 49ers +14 Nominal
4:25pm Denver Broncos +3 Solid
4:25pm LA Rams -3 Casual
Our system produced too many games and we had a hard time narrowing it down to a more manageable level. We chose games spread throughout the day to lead to a more entertaining slate.
This early in the season we tend to have more nominal plays than anything else.
Noon Akron +11 Nominal
3:30pm Boston College +14 Nominal
4pm Missouri -7 Nominal
7:30pm Kentucky +7 Casual
*8pm Rice +23 Casual
*8pm Miami (Ohio) -4 Casual
UPDATE:
First, we apologize for the Akron pick. Our system works best when run closer to game time or at least same day as it takes betting trends into consideration. If we had run this today, Akron would not have been picked. All other games still look good.
*In fact, Rice is now +23 and Miami (Ohio) dropped to -4. Both better than where we were last night so we did a little extra on these and changed both to Casual plays. The Mizzou line went to -6, but we missed it. We’ve also added in two additional games:
8pm Louisville +3′ Casual
8:30pm Texas +17′ Casual (We know, we know…)
Our record thus far:
Tonight’s college games:
7pm UMass +14′ Nominal
7pm South Florida -16′ Nominal
10pm UTEP +23 Nominal
Go out and have yourself a drink! Don’t drink and drive and all that too.
Okay…
Our record thus far:
Now for tonight’s contests.
College
8pm New Mexico +15′ Nominal
NFL
8:25pm Houston Texans +6 Nominal
Tonight’s games are too close to call. Our two nominal picks are only because our system came up inconclusive. Our system did produce a casual play on the total of the early game. Sorry for this late post.
Here you go:
7:10pm Minnesota Vikings -3 Nominal
7:10pm Vikings/Saints Under 47′ Casual
10:20pm LA Chargers +3 Nominal
It is finally here! Our favorite day of the year!
First, let’s clean up yesterday. We expected WVU to cover that spread. It seemed like they were giving us that one, but we put a nominal play the other way to make a record of it so we can learn from it and adjust our algorithm.
Our record thus far:
Now on to today’s games.
1pm Chicago Bears +7 Solid (Super Bowl hangover history matches up w/ our system.)
1pm Washington Redskins +1 Nominal
1pm Detroit Lions +2 Casual
1pm New York Jets +7′ Nominal
1pm Oakland Raiders +1′ Nominal (goes against our system)
1pm Houston Texans -6 Nominal (goes against our system)
4:05pm Indianapolis Colts +4 Nominal
4:25pm San Francisco 49ers +6 Solid
8:30pm Dallas Cowboys -4 Nominal (Giants seem like the pick, but we’ll stick by this.)
Vegas is being sneaky. We held off Friday night’s game of Purdue and Ohio because the line didn’t make sense. How could one not bet on Purdue? They were barely favorites at home on a lesser opponent who had critical injuries. The public loaded up on Purdue. Why would Vegas allow this?
They’re setting us up. All of us. You. Me. Billy Bob. All of us. But, how long will they continue to draw us in? There are some apparent gimmies on Saturday, but they have to be fool’s gold, right?
I’m just not sure. Normally later in the season it is the fool’s gold we’re so good at identifying. But this season this early on we’re just not sure.
Anyway, here’s our picks:
Noon East Carolina +24′ Nominal (We don’t blame you if you play WVU.)
Noon Iowa State +3 Nominal
3:30pm MTSU +10′ Casual
8pm Rice +1′ Nominal
8pm Baylor -15′ Casual
As we mentioned going into last week we felt there were a lot of games that Vegas was giving the public. We tend to shade the public here which is why we kept all our predictions in the small nominal to casual range and attached a disclaimer on our lack of confidence. Vegas at times like to allow the public a chance to win early to get them hooked for the long haul.
Here’s how we’re doing so far:
Nominal = 2 – 4
Casual = 1 -2
Yawn. No worries mates.
Tonights NFL opener is an intriguing matchup. The Patriots are not like normal NFL teams in the fact they make an effort to actually pile it on when they’re winning. This allows them to cover larger spreads than most NFL teams. The Chiefs are a very good team with an average QB. The QB position and the Pats playing at home lends itself to the Pats covering.
Perhaps this is our anti-Tom Brady bias, but we just feel that Tom Brady has gotten away with his average deep game for too long. The Chiefs are good enough on defense to take away the Pats running and short game and force the Pats to go deep more often. This is where Brady is an average QB. With Julian Edelman’s injury, the departures of Martellus Bennett and Legarrette Blount, and speedy Malcolm Mitchell slowed by a knee injury, we simply think the Chiefs not only can cover this game, but win it outright.
Betting against the Patriots is never a fun proposition, so we’ll temper our expectations to a casual play only.
8:30pm Kansas City +9 Casual
We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year. The first week is often strange. We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in. Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.
Just a reminder. If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment. Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose. There’s no such thing as a sure thing.
We avoided last nights games for a reason. We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments. That is an uneasy place to be. But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.
Here is what our ratings mean:
Load up = almost too good to be true. On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20. Rarity.
High stakes = very confident. Great times to catch up if behind on the year. On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.
Solid bet = solid plays. $5
Casual bet = these happen most often. Just something to spice things up. $1.50
Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game. Meh. $0.50
Okay, now for the games:
Friday Night Lights
8pm Rutgers +27′ Nominal
8pm Florida Atlantic +9 Nominal (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)
9pm Utah State +27′ Nominal
9:30pm Northern Illinois +2′ Casual
Saturday
Noon Maryland +19 Nominal (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)
12:20pm North Carolina -12′ Nominal (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)
3:30pm Northwestern -24 Casual
3:30pm Florida +4′ Nominal
8pm Florida State +7 Casual (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)
We took it on the chin yesterday. Has us gun shy heading into tonight. But experience tells us we’ve been here before. Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.
Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…
8:30pm Jets Pick Casual
Early Look At Bowl Games
We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now. There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries. Or coaches who leave programs without warning.
But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:
West Virginia +1 vs. Miami. Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal. They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game. WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field. Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent. WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth. WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them. There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses. This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.
Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson. Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10. They only lost one game. The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them. Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good. This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get. When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.
Penn State +7 vs. USC. Really? USC is favored by seven over Penn State? Seven!? Incredible. This line will likely drop quickly. The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven. But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.
gridiron shark 