Saturday’s Slate

Our system produced too many games and we had a hard time narrowing it down to a more manageable level.  We chose games spread throughout the day to lead to a more entertaining slate.

This early in the season we tend to have more nominal plays than anything else.

Noon  Akron  +11  Nominal

3:30pm  Boston College  +14  Nominal

4pm  Missouri  -7  Nominal

7:30pm  Kentucky  +7  Casual

*8pm  Rice  +23  Casual

*8pm  Miami (Ohio)  -4   Casual

UPDATE:

First, we apologize for the Akron pick.  Our system works best when run closer to game time or at least same day as it takes betting trends into consideration.  If we had run this today, Akron would not have been picked.  All other games still look good.

*In fact, Rice is now +23 and Miami (Ohio) dropped to -4.  Both better than where we were last night so we did a little extra on these and changed both to Casual plays.  The Mizzou line went to -6, but we missed it.  We’ve also added in two additional games:

8pm  Louisville  +3′   Casual

8:30pm  Texas  +17′  Casual  (We know, we know…)

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Thirsty Thursday!

Go out and have yourself a drink!  Don’t drink and drive and all that too.

Okay…

Our record thus far:

  • College Games
    • Nominal 3-5-1
    • Casual 2-3
  • NFL
    • Nominal 3-4-1
    • Casual 2-1
    • Solid 1-1
  • Totals
    • Nominal 6-9-2
    • Casual 4-4
    • Solid 1-1

Now for tonight’s contests.

College

8pm  New Mexico  +15′  Nominal

NFL

8:25pm  Houston Texans  +6  Nominal

Saturday’s Slate

Vegas is being sneaky.  We held off Friday night’s game of Purdue and Ohio because the line didn’t make sense.  How could one not bet on Purdue?  They were barely favorites at home on a lesser opponent who had critical injuries.  The public loaded up on Purdue.  Why would Vegas allow this?

They’re setting us up.  All of us.  You.  Me.  Billy Bob.  All of us.  But, how long will they continue to draw us in?  There are some apparent gimmies on Saturday, but they have to be fool’s gold, right?

I’m just not sure.  Normally later in the season it is the fool’s gold we’re so good at identifying.  But this season this early on we’re just not sure.

Anyway, here’s our picks:

Noon  East Carolina  +24′   Nominal   (We don’t blame you if you play WVU.)

Noon  Iowa State   +3  Nominal

3:30pm  MTSU  +10′  Casual

8pm  Rice  +1′  Nominal

8pm  Baylor  -15′  Casual

 

2017 Football Is Here!

We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year.  The first week is often strange.  We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in.  Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.

Just a reminder.  If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment.  Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.  There’s no such thing as a sure thing.

We avoided last nights games for a reason.  We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments.  That is an uneasy place to be.  But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.

Here is what our ratings mean:

Load up = almost too good to be true.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20.  Rarity.

High stakes = very confident.  Great times to catch up if behind on the year.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.

Solid bet = solid plays.  $5

Casual bet = these happen most often.  Just something to spice things up.  $1.50

Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game.  Meh.  $0.50

Okay, now for the games:

Friday Night Lights

8pm  Rutgers  +27′   Nominal

8pm  Florida Atlantic  +9  Nominal  (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)

9pm  Utah State  +27′  Nominal

9:30pm  Northern Illinois  +2′  Casual

Saturday

Noon  Maryland  +19  Nominal  (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)

12:20pm  North Carolina  -12′  Nominal  (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)

3:30pm  Northwestern  -24  Casual

3:30pm  Florida  +4′  Nominal

8pm  Florida State  +7   Casual  (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)

 

 

 

Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

Sunday Funday after 5-0 Saturday!

Give us a little whoop whoop!

We tend to finish strong on the season as betters tend to follow certain narratives which creates value for us.

We went 5-0 yesterday, but we weren’t aggressive with it.  Nor will we be too aggressive today.

1pm  Bears  +1′   Casual  (Not sure how the Bears are an underdog at home against a bad 49ers team.)

1pm  Texans  +7  Casual  (Packers are one of those teams that the betting public always over values.  The Texans defense is solid against the pass.  This will be a dog fight.  Only way Packers cover is a defensive or special teams TD.)

1pm  Jaguars  +3′  Casual  (Broncos traveling east for an early game.)

1pm  Rams  +14   Casual  (Patriots aren’t blowing people away this year.  14 points is a ton.)

4:25pm  Chargers  -3′   Nominal  (System pick.  Not sure about this one.)

8:30pm  Panthers  +7′  Nominal  (Two overrated QBs going head to head.  7 points is a lot.)