Sunday Funday

We salvaged our Saturday with a UFC pick of Tony Ferguson.  We attempted to update the site showing that, but there was a technical error.

Today, we’re going to chase all day if we fall early.  The double-or-nothing theory.

1pm  Ravens  +3′  Casual  (Big Ben is “expected” to play.  If he doesn’t then this is great value.  If he does, it is an overreaction by the public since the Ravens are home.)

1pm  Browns  +7′  High stakes.  (The Browns aren’t as bad as they seem.  This is an easy game for the Cowboys to have a let down.  Browns get Coleman back at WR which will open up the field quite a bit.)

4:05pm  Rams  +3   Casual  (Panthers were exposed.  One good game doesn’t change that.)

4:25pm  Colts  +7′  Casual  (Packers defense has too many injuries for the Colts to not at least get a back door cover.)

4:25pm  Titans  +4  Casual  (We admit, we lose betting on the Titans almost as much as we do betting on the Bucs.  We’re not sure why we keep finding value here.  Perhaps because the public keeps winning betting against them.)

8:30pm   Raiders  Pk  Nominal  (Derek Carr.)

Monday Night Football

8:25pm  Bills  +7  Casual  (Seahawks are overrated because their QB is overrated.  Tyrod Taylor is better, which isn’t saying much.)

Early look at Super Bowl L

We called it spot on yesterday.  We’ve dominated our picks in the playoffs going 8-2 (really it is 9-1 but we had an idiot make a last moment change when posting our wild card picks).

The early line is Carolina Panthers -4′.  We actually thought it would open higher than that so we see value in Carolina right now.  The betting general public will likely be all over Carolina and drive this line upwards.  Early word is the wise guys (professional betters) are going he way of the Denver Broncos.  We’re not surprised by this either as two weeks prep time is a great equalizer.  The Broncos defense is superb.

And if the Panthers hadn’t crushed the Arizona Cardinals, this game likely would be Broncos -1.  Which then means there is value on the Broncos.  Which explains why the pro gambles are going with Denver.

But the truth is the Panthers have been undervalued all season.  Especially Cam Newton and the Panthers defense.  There are some plays to be had down the field against the Panthers D, but often requires the opposing QB to buy time to see it come to fruition.  Does Peyton Manning have the ability to take advantage of this at this stage of his career? At least Manning should have decent weather to work in.

Another angle of this is Carolina is peaking at the right time.  They are playing their best ball now.  Or did they peak one game too early?

One other item though, is even though we believe the betting public will go with Carolina, there is also a large segment of the population who loves Manning with others loathing Newton.  This too influences the betting lines.  We think it will likely keep the line from moving too much.

It is going to be fun to watch the line moves these two weeks.  If it ever gets down to 4 or lower, jump on Carolina.  If it ever gets up to 6, hedge with Denver.  Leave more on Carolina, but try to hit in the middle.

Lastly – remember the game is two weeks away.  Though you do want to take advantage of some early action where value may be leaning where you want, don’t load up too much one way or the other.  A lot can happen in two weeks.  Player slips in shower, blows ACL in practice, gets arrested.  A player could guarantee a victory during media day.  Who knows.

We’ll post our final pick closer to the game.