Superbowl Postmortem

You’re welcome.

We went 9-2 (actually 10-1) in the postseason.  We correctly picked the Super Bowl.  We suggested the under as well though not counted in our statistics.

We leave the game feeling the same way as we did going in.  The Carolina Panthers are probably the more skilled team, but in a one game scenario the Denver Broncos would be able to present unique challenges to Cam Newton and the Panthers.

What gets lost in all the coverage of the game is just how good the Panthers defense played.  They had five sacks on only 28 Denver passing plays.  That is a sack on 18% of drop backs.  Denver had three fumbles while only losing one.  Carolina had four fumbles while losing three.  Each team had one interception.

The keys to the game are were where the turnovers took place.  The Broncos one defensive TD and another fumble recovery at the doorstep to another were the game.  The Panthers also were in FG range another time when losing the ball and missed a FG on another possession.

The punt return by Denver when the player unwisely didn’t call a fair catch and was rewarded for his bravery  by inexplicably poor tackling by Carolina’s special teams allowing for a long return into scoring territory.

If these teams played ten times, we’re confident Carolina would win by six or more points at least seven times.

But, they only play once.  Which is why we advised picking Denver.

You’re welcome.

Final Super Bowl thoughts

We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning.  We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.

We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it.  We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points.  It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.

Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points.  But this is only for one game.  We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset.  We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.

The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle.  We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.

As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position.  We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0.  We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10.  Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.

Six points is a lot.  You can still get in on Denver for +5′.

Do so.  Casual to moderate only, though.

Have fun!

 

 

Super Bowl notes

As we stated earlier we expected the line would climb to Carolina Panthers -6.  If you had gotten in early and taken Carolina at -4′, you could then take the Denver Broncos +6 in an attempt to hit in the middle.

A low-risk high-reward strategy.

Most of the early money is pouring in on Carolina.  This means there is value with Denver.    Our own football evaluations show Carolina should cover this game.  Peyton Manning is as immobile as Carson Palmer.  However, Carolina has shown a tendency to not put teams away other than the Arizona Cardinals.  And Denver has a championship caliber defense.

Since there is value on Denver right now, bets will begin coming in on them.  Plus, Manning’s popularity will bring in some late bets for Denver too.  If you’re taking Denver, now is the time.  You can still find them plus 6 in many places.  We could see this game closing at -4′ where it started.  But, if we were to bet, we’d say it will close at -5.

For the record:

Sunday  6:30pm  Denver Broncos  +6  (Casual to moderate bet.)

If you want to bet the over – under, take the Under 46 (casual.)

Early look at Super Bowl L

We called it spot on yesterday.  We’ve dominated our picks in the playoffs going 8-2 (really it is 9-1 but we had an idiot make a last moment change when posting our wild card picks).

The early line is Carolina Panthers -4′.  We actually thought it would open higher than that so we see value in Carolina right now.  The betting general public will likely be all over Carolina and drive this line upwards.  Early word is the wise guys (professional betters) are going he way of the Denver Broncos.  We’re not surprised by this either as two weeks prep time is a great equalizer.  The Broncos defense is superb.

And if the Panthers hadn’t crushed the Arizona Cardinals, this game likely would be Broncos -1.  Which then means there is value on the Broncos.  Which explains why the pro gambles are going with Denver.

But the truth is the Panthers have been undervalued all season.  Especially Cam Newton and the Panthers defense.  There are some plays to be had down the field against the Panthers D, but often requires the opposing QB to buy time to see it come to fruition.  Does Peyton Manning have the ability to take advantage of this at this stage of his career? At least Manning should have decent weather to work in.

Another angle of this is Carolina is peaking at the right time.  They are playing their best ball now.  Or did they peak one game too early?

One other item though, is even though we believe the betting public will go with Carolina, there is also a large segment of the population who loves Manning with others loathing Newton.  This too influences the betting lines.  We think it will likely keep the line from moving too much.

It is going to be fun to watch the line moves these two weeks.  If it ever gets down to 4 or lower, jump on Carolina.  If it ever gets up to 6, hedge with Denver.  Leave more on Carolina, but try to hit in the middle.

Lastly – remember the game is two weeks away.  Though you do want to take advantage of some early action where value may be leaning where you want, don’t load up too much one way or the other.  A lot can happen in two weeks.  Player slips in shower, blows ACL in practice, gets arrested.  A player could guarantee a victory during media day.  Who knows.

We’ll post our final pick closer to the game.