We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning. We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.
We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it. We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points. It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.
Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points. But this is only for one game. We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset. We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.
The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle. We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.
As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position. We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0. We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10. Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.
Six points is a lot. You can still get in on Denver for +5′.
Do so. Casual to moderate only, though.