Posting this during the USC – Texas game. Texas deserves to win, yet so deserves to lose. Kids.
NFL…
1pm Jacksonville Jaguars +3 Solid
1pm New Orleans Saints +7 Casual
1pm Chicago Bears +7 Casual
1pm Cleveland Browns +7′ Casual
4:25pm San Francisco 49ers +14 Nominal
4:25pm Denver Broncos +3 Solid
4:25pm LA Rams -3 Casual
Our system produced too many games and we had a hard time narrowing it down to a more manageable level. We chose games spread throughout the day to lead to a more entertaining slate.
This early in the season we tend to have more nominal plays than anything else.
Noon Akron +11 Nominal
3:30pm Boston College +14 Nominal
4pm Missouri -7 Nominal
7:30pm Kentucky +7 Casual
*8pm Rice +23 Casual
*8pm Miami (Ohio) -4 Casual
UPDATE:
First, we apologize for the Akron pick. Our system works best when run closer to game time or at least same day as it takes betting trends into consideration. If we had run this today, Akron would not have been picked. All other games still look good.
*In fact, Rice is now +23 and Miami (Ohio) dropped to -4. Both better than where we were last night so we did a little extra on these and changed both to Casual plays. The Mizzou line went to -6, but we missed it. We’ve also added in two additional games:
8pm Louisville +3′ Casual
8:30pm Texas +17′ Casual (We know, we know…)
Go out and have yourself a drink! Don’t drink and drive and all that too.
Okay…
Our record thus far:
Now for tonight’s contests.
College
8pm New Mexico +15′ Nominal
NFL
8:25pm Houston Texans +6 Nominal
As we mentioned going into last week we felt there were a lot of games that Vegas was giving the public. We tend to shade the public here which is why we kept all our predictions in the small nominal to casual range and attached a disclaimer on our lack of confidence. Vegas at times like to allow the public a chance to win early to get them hooked for the long haul.
Here’s how we’re doing so far:
Nominal = 2 – 4
Casual = 1 -2
Yawn. No worries mates.
Tonights NFL opener is an intriguing matchup. The Patriots are not like normal NFL teams in the fact they make an effort to actually pile it on when they’re winning. This allows them to cover larger spreads than most NFL teams. The Chiefs are a very good team with an average QB. The QB position and the Pats playing at home lends itself to the Pats covering.
Perhaps this is our anti-Tom Brady bias, but we just feel that Tom Brady has gotten away with his average deep game for too long. The Chiefs are good enough on defense to take away the Pats running and short game and force the Pats to go deep more often. This is where Brady is an average QB. With Julian Edelman’s injury, the departures of Martellus Bennett and Legarrette Blount, and speedy Malcolm Mitchell slowed by a knee injury, we simply think the Chiefs not only can cover this game, but win it outright.
Betting against the Patriots is never a fun proposition, so we’ll temper our expectations to a casual play only.
8:30pm Kansas City +9 Casual
We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year. The first week is often strange. We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in. Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.
Just a reminder. If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment. Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose. There’s no such thing as a sure thing.
We avoided last nights games for a reason. We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments. That is an uneasy place to be. But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.
Here is what our ratings mean:
Load up = almost too good to be true. On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20. Rarity.
High stakes = very confident. Great times to catch up if behind on the year. On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.
Solid bet = solid plays. $5
Casual bet = these happen most often. Just something to spice things up. $1.50
Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game. Meh. $0.50
Okay, now for the games:
Friday Night Lights
8pm Rutgers +27′ Nominal
8pm Florida Atlantic +9 Nominal (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)
9pm Utah State +27′ Nominal
9:30pm Northern Illinois +2′ Casual
Saturday
Noon Maryland +19 Nominal (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)
12:20pm North Carolina -12′ Nominal (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)
3:30pm Northwestern -24 Casual
3:30pm Florida +4′ Nominal
8pm Florida State +7 Casual (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)
The public is loading up on a lot of games that we tend to agree with them on, so we’re in a quandary. We’re being selective.
1pm Eagles +5 Casual (Weather should keep the score low meaning five points is a lot.)
1pm Bears +5 Solid (Bears get points at home on a frozen field.)
4:25pm Chargers +3 Casual (Carr looked horrible last week. Injury may be more limiting than initially thought.)
8:30pm Cowboys -7 Casual (Cowboys had one bad game in bad weather.)
We finally learned to lay off the primetime games heading into the weekend.
Noon Florida -10′ Casual
Noon Indiana +7′ Solid
Noon Purdue +14 Solid
3:30pm Georgia Tech +14 Casual
3:30pm Army +14 Casual
3:30pm Missouri -3′ Nominal
7pm Hawaii +18 Nominal
10pm Arizona +16 Nominal
We salvaged our Saturday with a UFC pick of Tony Ferguson. We attempted to update the site showing that, but there was a technical error.
Today, we’re going to chase all day if we fall early. The double-or-nothing theory.
1pm Ravens +3′ Casual (Big Ben is “expected” to play. If he doesn’t then this is great value. If he does, it is an overreaction by the public since the Ravens are home.)
1pm Browns +7′ High stakes. (The Browns aren’t as bad as they seem. This is an easy game for the Cowboys to have a let down. Browns get Coleman back at WR which will open up the field quite a bit.)
4:05pm Rams +3 Casual (Panthers were exposed. One good game doesn’t change that.)
4:25pm Colts +7′ Casual (Packers defense has too many injuries for the Colts to not at least get a back door cover.)
4:25pm Titans +4 Casual (We admit, we lose betting on the Titans almost as much as we do betting on the Bucs. We’re not sure why we keep finding value here. Perhaps because the public keeps winning betting against them.)
8:30pm Raiders Pk Nominal (Derek Carr.)
Monday Night Football
8:25pm Bills +7 Casual (Seahawks are overrated because their QB is overrated. Tyrod Taylor is better, which isn’t saying much.)
Winner winner chicken dinner! Yesterday was a good day. $$$
We love when our system starts having days like that. They become more frequent as the season progresses. Today’s games:
9:30am Redskins +3 Casual (Josh Norman’s return is big here.)
1pm Bills +7 Casual (going against Brady makes one’s stomach turn.)
1pm Bucs +1′ Solid (We’ve been high on the Bucs all year and paid the price. Doubling down.)
4:25pm Packers +3 Casual (The Packers patch work defense will need to hold up on the back end to have a chance here.)
4:25 Packers/Falcons Under 53 Casual (see above.)
8:30pm Eagles +5 Solid (Eagles defense is pretty good. Should be a close game.)
The public has been winning these Thursday night contests. Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends. Something to keep in mind moving forward.
There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love. At least, not yet.
Noon Penn State -13′ Casual (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win. But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)
Noon East Carolina -7 Casual
Noon Central Florida +10 Casual
3:30pm Texas +4 Nominal (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)
3:30pm Florida Atlantic +21′ Casual (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play. But, we stick with our system for now.)
3:30pm Army +7 Casual (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)
7pm Marshall +15′ Casual (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)
7:15pm South Carolina +14 Casual
7:15pm Ole Miss +5 Nominal (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed. This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)
10:45pm Oregon State +13 Casual
11pm Arizona +5 Casual (Arizona is bad. Standford has been overrated.)
gridiron shark 