Saturday’s Slate

Vegas is being sneaky.  We held off Friday night’s game of Purdue and Ohio because the line didn’t make sense.  How could one not bet on Purdue?  They were barely favorites at home on a lesser opponent who had critical injuries.  The public loaded up on Purdue.  Why would Vegas allow this?

They’re setting us up.  All of us.  You.  Me.  Billy Bob.  All of us.  But, how long will they continue to draw us in?  There are some apparent gimmies on Saturday, but they have to be fool’s gold, right?

I’m just not sure.  Normally later in the season it is the fool’s gold we’re so good at identifying.  But this season this early on we’re just not sure.

Anyway, here’s our picks:

Noon  East Carolina  +24′   Nominal   (We don’t blame you if you play WVU.)

Noon  Iowa State   +3  Nominal

3:30pm  MTSU  +10′  Casual

8pm  Rice  +1′  Nominal

8pm  Baylor  -15′  Casual

 

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Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

Sunday Funday after 5-0 Saturday!

Give us a little whoop whoop!

We tend to finish strong on the season as betters tend to follow certain narratives which creates value for us.

We went 5-0 yesterday, but we weren’t aggressive with it.  Nor will we be too aggressive today.

1pm  Bears  +1′   Casual  (Not sure how the Bears are an underdog at home against a bad 49ers team.)

1pm  Texans  +7  Casual  (Packers are one of those teams that the betting public always over values.  The Texans defense is solid against the pass.  This will be a dog fight.  Only way Packers cover is a defensive or special teams TD.)

1pm  Jaguars  +3′  Casual  (Broncos traveling east for an early game.)

1pm  Rams  +14   Casual  (Patriots aren’t blowing people away this year.  14 points is a ton.)

4:25pm  Chargers  -3′   Nominal  (System pick.  Not sure about this one.)

8:30pm  Panthers  +7′  Nominal  (Two overrated QBs going head to head.  7 points is a lot.)

 

Saturday’s Slate

The public has been winning these Thursday night contests.  Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends.  Something to keep in mind moving forward.

There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love.  At least, not yet.

Noon  Penn State  -13′  Casual  (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win.  But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)

Noon  East Carolina  -7  Casual

Noon  Central Florida  +10  Casual

3:30pm  Texas  +4  Nominal  (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)

3:30pm  Florida Atlantic  +21′  Casual  (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play.  But, we stick with our system for now.)

3:30pm  Army  +7  Casual  (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)

7pm  Marshall  +15′  Casual  (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)

7:15pm  South Carolina  +14  Casual

7:15pm  Ole Miss  +5  Nominal  (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed.  This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)

10:45pm  Oregon State  +13  Casual

11pm  Arizona  +5  Casual   (Arizona is bad.  Standford has been overrated.)

 

 

 

Saturday’s Slate

After we posted our picks for last night, we thought about switching the amounts.  We’ve been high on Washington and knew Stanford was overrated.  We felt BYU would impose it’s will in the 2nd half against Toledo as the altitude began to wear on them.  We were correct, just came up 2 yards short and underestimated Toledo’s offensive consistency.

Today:

Noon Vanderbilt +11′ Solid

Noon  Georgia Tech  +8  Casual

3:30pm  Illinois  +21  Casual

7pm  North Texas  +17  Casual

7pm  UTEP  +21′  Casual

7pm  Central Michigan  +3  Casual

7pm  Ole Miss -16  Nominal

3:30pm  Purdue  +10′  Solid

 

 

Sunday Funday!

The public rolled yesterday which means we didn’t.  There will be days like that.  We’re glad we held off other games we were watching as the public ran away with a lot of them.  Sometimes Vegas gets it wrong.  We wonder if it is at times intentional.  Give the addicts a taste of victory to draw them in further.

We’ve been quite busy with an office move and haven’t had time to share more commentary lately or to update our standings.  We hope to by next weekend.  One of the games we were on earlier in the week was the Cardinals at the Bills.  Early action was on the Bills bring the line down.  Now most betters are going with the Cardinals but the line hasn’t gone back up which tells us some big bets are going the way of the Bills.  Our system says take the Bills, but we were on the Cardinals earlier in the week.  We’re now just steering clear of the game.

The Titans still aren’t getting any respect from the betting public, but being at home for an early game against a west coast team bodes well.

We don’t like the Redskins team and neither does the public, but this is precisely the time you back them.  There is value there even if it is difficult to fathom.  Nobody ever said gambling was logical did they?

The Steelers always have their betters, but favored on the road against a decent Eagles team is comical.  Should be a close game.  A Steelers win by a FG doesn’t cover.

Here you go:

Titans +1 Casual

Redskins +3′ Casual

Redskins/Giants Under 46 Casual

Eagles +4 Solid

Steelers/Eagles Under 47 Casual

Rams +6 Casual

Rams/Bucs Over 41′ Casual

Bears +7 nominal

Saints -3 nominal

Falcons/Saints Under 53′ nominal

We only are betting nominally on the night games to provide some interest.  No strong feelings at this time.  We don’t like the Saints, but the public doesn’t either.  We’re surprised they’re giving up three points, but our system says to take them.  If this were a day game we’d steer clear, but being the only game on we want to make it more interesting.

Saturday’s Slate

Listen, we’ve a lot going on so we don’t have time for commentary, but we’re providing our picks.  Pay attention to them.

Florida International +7  casual

UConn -3  casual

Rutgers +14 casual

Colorado State +17 casual

UTEP  +11′ casual

Marshall +28 casual

UCLA  +3′  casual