NFL Championship Games

Monday Mourning

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We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

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Superbowl Postmortem

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You’re welcome.

We went 9-2 (actually 10-1) in the postseason.  We correctly picked the Super Bowl.  We suggested the under as well though not counted in our statistics.

We leave the game feeling the same way as we did going in.  The Carolina Panthers are probably the more skilled team, but in a one game scenario the Denver Broncos would be able to present unique challenges to Cam Newton and the Panthers.

What gets lost in all the coverage of the game is just how good the Panthers defense played.  They had five sacks on only 28 Denver passing plays.  That is a sack on 18% of drop backs.  Denver had three fumbles while only losing one.  Carolina had four fumbles while losing three.  Each team had one interception.

The keys to the game are were where the turnovers took place.  The Broncos one defensive TD and another fumble recovery at the doorstep to another were the game.  The Panthers also were in FG range another time when losing the ball and missed a FG on another possession.

The punt return by Denver when the player unwisely didn’t call a fair catch and was rewarded for his bravery  by inexplicably poor tackling by Carolina’s special teams allowing for a long return into scoring territory.

If these teams played ten times, we’re confident Carolina would win by six or more points at least seven times.

But, they only play once.  Which is why we advised picking Denver.

You’re welcome.

Final Super Bowl thoughts

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We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning.  We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.

We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it.  We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points.  It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.

Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points.  But this is only for one game.  We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset.  We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.

The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle.  We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.

As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position.  We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0.  We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10.  Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.

Six points is a lot.  You can still get in on Denver for +5′.

Do so.  Casual to moderate only, though.

Have fun!

 

 

NFL Conference Championship Games

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Well, well, well…..  how fast the season goes by.  Here we are two weeks away from Super Bowl Sunday.  No surprise we’re once again talking about Patriots and Broncos.  Getting old, actually.

No surprise either that Tom Brady is favored by 3′ at Denver.  That’s getting old too.  Brady and the Patriots normally receive additional action since they consistently deliver.  Peyton Manning on the other hand often falls short in the playoffs.  Everyone recognizes Peyton has trouble pushing the ball downfield.  And everyone recognizes Belichick has perhaps the game’s best coach.  Everyone thing points to the Patriots.

Which creates value.  We’ll go Denver.

3pm  Denver Broncos    +3′    (moderate bet)

Our reason is we think this will most likely be a 3 point game one way or the other.  So getting points is a huge advantage.  The Broncos defense is stout while the Patriots offense is not dynamic.  This game will come down to turnovers and field position.  Whoever manages the basics of the game will win.  Home field advantage and points is too much to pass up.

The NFC Championship game is intriguing.  The Carolina Panthers have been dominant on their way to a 15-1 record.  They’ve blown teams out in the first half while holding on to win in the second half.  For some reason the public gives them less credit for the first halves and is very critical of the second halves.

The Arizona Cardinals sit near the top of the rankings in both team offense and team defense.  They have great individual players on both sides of the ball – namely Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson.  People love Fitzgerald.  People don’t like Panthers’ Cam Newton.

Cam is going to be the best player on the field.  The Cardinals had travel difficulties this week.  They’re a dome team playing on a bad field in cold conditions.  The Panthers know a Super Bowl berth is at stake.  They’ll concentrate for an entire game and win emphatically.

6:40pm    Carolina Panthers    -3′    (Heavy bet)

Do you agree?  Let us know in the comments!