Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

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Saturday’s Slate

We’ve finally learned our Thursday night lesson.  The public will win on Thursday more often than not.  Saturdays, though, are another matter.

Noon   Illinois   +8′   Casual

12:30pm   Pitt   +5   Casual

3:30pm  Clemson   -27   Casual

3:30pm   Fresno State   +16′   Casual

4pm   Arizona   +15   Casual

4pm   SMU   +3   Casual

7pm  NC State   +7   Solid

8pm   East Carolina   +10   Casual

8pm   LSU   +8   Solid

8pm   Ohio State   -16′   Casual

10:15pm   Utah State   +4′   Casual

Parlay Illinois, Pitt, NC State, and LSU.

Bowl Game Action

We’ve a slew of games over the next few days.  We’ve plenty of leanings in games from a casual perspective, but only a couple we feel strongly about. In analyzing ourselves over the past year, we’ve refined out techniques to operate on quality rather than quantity.

We showed this in only choosing five NFL games Sunday and winning four of them.  We also said to load up on Baylor and were vindicated.

Here is what we suggest coming up:

Thursday    4pm    Oklahoma Sooners  -3′  (moderate bet)

Saturday     6:45pm    Texas Christian Horned Frogs  PK  (moderate bet)

We actually would lean heavier on TCU than Oklahoma.

We understand there are a bunch of games begging to have some action, so here is a list of our casual leanings – for entertainment purposes only.

Notre Dame +6′, Oklahoma State +7, Kansas State +13

Happy new year!

*******UPDATE****** 8:20am EST on 12/31

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, was arrested last night.  If he doesn’t play in the game, that changes everything.  If you’ve already bet on TCU, you may still have time to hedge before there is a line change.  You could bet Oregon now while it is still a pick and if Boykin doesn’t play, you can wait until TCU is getting about 2′ points and then take them.  You might hit in the middle and hit both ways.  We do think TCU can still win this game without Boykin, but we can’t predict the psychological impact his loss would have on the team.  Of course, TCU could do the “innocent until proven guilty” and allow him to play.