NCAA Championship Game

We finished the year strong and are sitting healthy.  We’ve a year of perspective to draw upon.  As many of you know, we typically shade the public because when the public goes one way, they create value the other direction.

However, sometimes the public is just flat out correct.  This happens more so in college than it does in the pros.  In the National Championship Game, early betting is going the way of the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The line started at 6 and is now up to 7.  Once it goes over 7 we envision money coming in on the Clemson Tigers.

We would normally shade towards Clemson in this situation generically speaking.  However, even though Clemson performed better than our expectations against Oklahoma and looked impressive, we provide some context.

Clemson plays in a weak conference.  The #2 and #3 teams (UNC and Florida State) in that conference were decimated in their bowl contests.  Oklahoma may have been the last team standing in the Big XII’s round-robbin schedule, but they were likely the 3rd best team in the conference.  Baylor was the best, but suffered an unusual amount of injuries to key personnel.  TCU was the 2nd best when they had Trevone Boykin, but losing him for a brief stretch proved their undoing.

If this was the old BCS system and it was one game with no playoffs between Clemson and Alabama, we’d take Clemson and the seven points.  Our reasoning is Clemson would have all these weeks to prepare for the game against one opponent.  But with Clemson having to prepare first for Oklahoma and only one week to primarily focus on Alabama, we feel the Jimmy’s and Joe’s will prove even more important than the X’s and O’s.

That all being said, we feel the line is about where it should be.  We suggest placing a casual bet on Alabama now before the line gets greater than 7.  If it drops below 7, we suggest upping your bet a bit to get that value.

Alabama Crimson Tide    -7   (casual bet only unless the line drops)


Bowl Game Action

We’ve a slew of games over the next few days.  We’ve plenty of leanings in games from a casual perspective, but only a couple we feel strongly about. In analyzing ourselves over the past year, we’ve refined out techniques to operate on quality rather than quantity.

We showed this in only choosing five NFL games Sunday and winning four of them.  We also said to load up on Baylor and were vindicated.

Here is what we suggest coming up:

Thursday    4pm    Oklahoma Sooners  -3′  (moderate bet)

Saturday     6:45pm    Texas Christian Horned Frogs  PK  (moderate bet)

We actually would lean heavier on TCU than Oklahoma.

We understand there are a bunch of games begging to have some action, so here is a list of our casual leanings – for entertainment purposes only.

Notre Dame +6′, Oklahoma State +7, Kansas State +13

Happy new year!

*******UPDATE****** 8:20am EST on 12/31

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, was arrested last night.  If he doesn’t play in the game, that changes everything.  If you’ve already bet on TCU, you may still have time to hedge before there is a line change.  You could bet Oregon now while it is still a pick and if Boykin doesn’t play, you can wait until TCU is getting about 2′ points and then take them.  You might hit in the middle and hit both ways.  We do think TCU can still win this game without Boykin, but we can’t predict the psychological impact his loss would have on the team.  Of course, TCU could do the “innocent until proven guilty” and allow him to play.


Tuesday Bowl Game

There are multiple games today but only one that catches our eye.

5:30pm  Baylor Bears  +3′  (heavy bet, you can also take the money line at +150)


We realize Baylor is decimated by injuries on offense.  They’re starting a 3rd string QB and are without their top WR and RT.  They’ve also lost 3 of their last 4 games.  But that was against Big XII competition.  This game is against ACC competition.  Baylor’s speed on defense will create some big plays and the Baylor running game will have consistent success.

No game is a lock with some things unpredictable such as turnovers, penalties, and field position.  But we feel good about this one.

Christmas Eve Games

It has been a fun season.  As you know we shade the public.  The public has been on a roll the last week which means we’ve taken it on the chin.

We’ll take our lessons with us into next season as we refine the way we shade.  For now, here are some early Christmas presents for you:

College Bowl Games on Christmas Eve

Noon  MTSU  +4′  (casual bet only)

8pm   Cincinnati  +3  (casual bet only)



8:25pm  San Diego Chargers  +6  (heavy bet)


If you can explore a money line bet now on Baylor in their bowl game next week and they are shown as the underdog, get something on it now.

Merry Christmas!

Saturday’s Slate

Noon    Maryland    +3

Noon    Army    +5

Noon    West Virginia    -27′

Noon    Virginia    +4′

1:00pm    Miami (OH)    +10

2:30pm    FL Int    +17

3:30pm    Clemson    -29

3:30pm    Ohio State    -13

3:30pm    Southern Cal    +4

3:30pm    Utah    -15

4:00pm    Auburn    -34

6:00pm    Oregon State    +15

7:00pm    Miss St    +5

7:00pm    Tulsa    +17

7:30pm    Charlotte    +24′

7:30pm    Baylor    +1

8:00pm    Tulane    +3

10:30pm    UNLV    +16

11:00pm    Hawaii    +10



Saturday’s Slate

Our thoughts and prayers are with those in France.

Here’s Saturday’s picks.

Noon    Illinois    +17

Noon    Georgia    +1

Noon    Tulane    +3

Noon    Kansas    +45

2:00pm    Texas San Antonio    -4

3:30pm    Miami Florida    +13

3:30pm    Rice    +7′

7:00pm    UNLV     +7′

7:00pm    South Florida    +3

10:30pm    Oregon State    +21′

10:30pm    Wyoming    +24′