2017 Football Is Here!

We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year.  The first week is often strange.  We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in.  Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.

Just a reminder.  If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment.  Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.  There’s no such thing as a sure thing.

We avoided last nights games for a reason.  We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments.  That is an uneasy place to be.  But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.

Here is what our ratings mean:

Load up = almost too good to be true.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20.  Rarity.

High stakes = very confident.  Great times to catch up if behind on the year.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.

Solid bet = solid plays.  $5

Casual bet = these happen most often.  Just something to spice things up.  $1.50

Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game.  Meh.  $0.50

Okay, now for the games:

Friday Night Lights

8pm  Rutgers  +27′   Nominal

8pm  Florida Atlantic  +9  Nominal  (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)

9pm  Utah State  +27′  Nominal

9:30pm  Northern Illinois  +2′  Casual

Saturday

Noon  Maryland  +19  Nominal  (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)

12:20pm  North Carolina  -12′  Nominal  (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)

3:30pm  Northwestern  -24  Casual

3:30pm  Florida  +4′  Nominal

8pm  Florida State  +7   Casual  (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)

 

 

 

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Monday Mourning

We took it on the chin yesterday.  Has us gun shy heading into tonight.  But experience tells us we’ve been here before.  Yesterday all but wiped out Saturday’s good fortune.

Tonight the public is heavy on the Colts, so naturally…

8:30pm  Jets  Pick  Casual

Early Look At Bowl Games

We’ve no idea how the public might choose to go on games and where the lines will move. But we see some early value if you get in now.  There is a risk – what players become ineligible between now and then, or have unexpected injuries.  Or coaches who leave programs without warning.

But, here is where we see some value now in games weeks away:

West Virginia +1 vs. Miami.  Both teams have good defenses, but WVU’s running game is phenomenal.  They’ve four RB’s who gained over 100 yards in at least one game and should have all four available for the bowl game.  WVU has a slew of quality receivers who can stretch the field.  Dana Holgerson is an innovative play caller with weeks to dissect his opponent.  WVU’s defense is solid at all three levels with depth.  WVU was only rated 16th in the CFP rankings even though their only two losses were against teams ranked higher than them.  There are teams ranked higher than they are with worse losses.  This will serve as motivation for these kids which should help keep them focused the next few weeks.

Ohio State -3 vs. Clemson.  Let’s face it, Ohio State was the best team in the Big 10.  They only lost one game.  The ACC is a bit overrated because ESPN propagandizes for them.  Clemson is a good team, but they’re not Ohio State good.  This minus three for OSU is probably about as good as it is going to get.  When the line creeps higher later, hedge with bets on Clemson and perhaps hit it in the middle.

Penn State +7 vs. USC.  Really?  USC is favored by seven over Penn State?  Seven!?  Incredible.  This line will likely drop quickly.  The game should be an entertaining one and the outcome will likely be by less than seven.  But, if one team is going to win by seven it will be PSU.

Sunday Funday!!!

We’ll be watching the Ryder Cup today, but we still have picks.

The Broncos showed how to beat Cam Newton and the League is following the blueprint.  The Falcons getting points at home is too good to be true.  The Broncos traveling to muggy Florida and giving points is another one too good to be true.  The Titans continue to get no respect.  The Rams fall into that category too, but we’re walking away from that game.  We were on it earlier in the week.  We were leaning Bills too, but backing off on it as well.

Here you go…

1pm  Titans  +4  Nominal

1pm  Falcons  +3  Solid

4:05pm  Bucs  +3′  Casual

Great day to parlay the above and monitor closely.  You could hedge the late game if things are going well.

UPDATE:

Sorry.  We should have bet the Rams as we alluded to.  And we’re now done with Tampa Bay.  We’ve been too high on them all year.  We’ve been smart getting off the Panthers early, but disappointed on our TB decision.

Anyway…

Sunday Night:

Chiefs  +3′  Casual

Saturday’s Slate

After we posted our picks for last night, we thought about switching the amounts.  We’ve been high on Washington and knew Stanford was overrated.  We felt BYU would impose it’s will in the 2nd half against Toledo as the altitude began to wear on them.  We were correct, just came up 2 yards short and underestimated Toledo’s offensive consistency.

Today:

Noon Vanderbilt +11′ Solid

Noon  Georgia Tech  +8  Casual

3:30pm  Illinois  +21  Casual

7pm  North Texas  +17  Casual

7pm  UTEP  +21′  Casual

7pm  Central Michigan  +3  Casual

7pm  Ole Miss -16  Nominal

3:30pm  Purdue  +10′  Solid

 

 

Standings Update

  • Load up 1-0
  • High stakes 1-0
  • Solid bets 5-5
  • Casual bets 22-19
  • Nominal bets 6-9
  • Overall bets 14-12
    +$8.3

The above includes paying juice.

Nominal games are normally just bet for entertainment only meaning one of the few games on TV that we don’t have a good read on.  We typically side with our system even if our personal opinions go against it.

We’re not shocked our nominal games are losing, but our solid plays are highly disappointing.  Still, we’re up.

 

 

Sunday Funday!

The public rolled yesterday which means we didn’t.  There will be days like that.  We’re glad we held off other games we were watching as the public ran away with a lot of them.  Sometimes Vegas gets it wrong.  We wonder if it is at times intentional.  Give the addicts a taste of victory to draw them in further.

We’ve been quite busy with an office move and haven’t had time to share more commentary lately or to update our standings.  We hope to by next weekend.  One of the games we were on earlier in the week was the Cardinals at the Bills.  Early action was on the Bills bring the line down.  Now most betters are going with the Cardinals but the line hasn’t gone back up which tells us some big bets are going the way of the Bills.  Our system says take the Bills, but we were on the Cardinals earlier in the week.  We’re now just steering clear of the game.

The Titans still aren’t getting any respect from the betting public, but being at home for an early game against a west coast team bodes well.

We don’t like the Redskins team and neither does the public, but this is precisely the time you back them.  There is value there even if it is difficult to fathom.  Nobody ever said gambling was logical did they?

The Steelers always have their betters, but favored on the road against a decent Eagles team is comical.  Should be a close game.  A Steelers win by a FG doesn’t cover.

Here you go:

Titans +1 Casual

Redskins +3′ Casual

Redskins/Giants Under 46 Casual

Eagles +4 Solid

Steelers/Eagles Under 47 Casual

Rams +6 Casual

Rams/Bucs Over 41′ Casual

Bears +7 nominal

Saints -3 nominal

Falcons/Saints Under 53′ nominal

We only are betting nominally on the night games to provide some interest.  No strong feelings at this time.  We don’t like the Saints, but the public doesn’t either.  We’re surprised they’re giving up three points, but our system says to take them.  If this were a day game we’d steer clear, but being the only game on we want to make it more interesting.