NFL Thursday

As we mentioned going into last week we felt there were a lot of games that Vegas was giving the public.  We tend to shade the public here which is why we kept all our predictions in the small nominal to casual range and attached a disclaimer on our lack of confidence.  Vegas at times like to allow the public a chance to win early to get them hooked for the long haul.

Here’s how we’re doing so far:

Nominal = 2 – 4

Casual = 1 -2

Yawn.  No worries mates.

Tonights NFL opener is an intriguing matchup.  The Patriots are not like normal NFL teams in the fact they make an effort to actually pile it on when they’re winning.  This allows them to cover larger spreads than most NFL teams.  The Chiefs are a very good team with an average QB.  The QB position and the Pats playing at home lends itself to the Pats covering.

Perhaps this is our anti-Tom Brady bias, but we just feel that Tom Brady has gotten away with his average deep game for too long.  The Chiefs are good enough on defense to take away the Pats running and short game and force the Pats to go deep more often.  This is where Brady is an average QB.  With Julian Edelman’s injury, the departures of Martellus Bennett and Legarrette Blount, and speedy Malcolm Mitchell slowed by a knee injury, we simply think the Chiefs not only can cover this game, but win it outright.

Betting against the Patriots is never a fun proposition, so we’ll temper our expectations to a casual play only.

8:30pm  Kansas City  +9  Casual

 

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2017 Football Is Here!

We had a very successful 2016 football season and look forward to replicating that this year.  The first week is often strange.  We believe Vegas may actually set lines to allow the public to win more than they lose in the first week to draw them in.  Sort of like a drug dealer giving people free drugs the first time to get them hooked.

Just a reminder.  If you’re going to gamble, do it for entertainment.  Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.  There’s no such thing as a sure thing.

We avoided last nights games for a reason.  We actually want to skip the weekend because when reviewing the games our system is at odds with our own personal game assessments.  That is an uneasy place to be.  But, we’ll stick with our system and just keep things low key.

Here is what our ratings mean:

Load up = almost too good to be true.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $20.  Rarity.

High stakes = very confident.  Great times to catch up if behind on the year.  On a scale of $1 – $10, this is a $10 play.

Solid bet = solid plays.  $5

Casual bet = these happen most often.  Just something to spice things up.  $1.50

Nominal = so bored so I’ll watch this game.  Meh.  $0.50

Okay, now for the games:

Friday Night Lights

8pm  Rutgers  +27′   Nominal

8pm  Florida Atlantic  +9  Nominal  (Had all summer to prepare for option offense.)

9pm  Utah State  +27′  Nominal

9:30pm  Northern Illinois  +2′  Casual

Saturday

Noon  Maryland  +19  Nominal  (We won’t believe in Texas until we see it.)

12:20pm  North Carolina  -12′  Nominal  (Cal traveling east and getting early start time.)

3:30pm  Northwestern  -24  Casual

3:30pm  Florida  +4′  Nominal

8pm  Florida State  +7   Casual  (Faith in FSU’s defense keeping this close.)

 

 

 

Sunday Funday!

Winner winner chicken dinner!  Yesterday was a good day.  $$$

We love when our system starts having days like that.  They become more frequent as the season progresses.  Today’s games:

9:30am  Redskins  +3  Casual  (Josh Norman’s return is big here.)

1pm  Bills  +7  Casual  (going against Brady makes one’s stomach turn.)

1pm  Bucs  +1′  Solid  (We’ve been high on the Bucs all year and paid the price.  Doubling down.)

4:25pm  Packers  +3  Casual  (The Packers patch work defense will need to hold up on the back end to have a chance here.)

4:25  Packers/Falcons Under 53  Casual  (see above.)

8:30pm  Eagles  +5  Solid  (Eagles defense is pretty good.  Should be a close game.)

Saturday’s Slate

The public has been winning these Thursday night contests.  Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends.  Something to keep in mind moving forward.

There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love.  At least, not yet.

Noon  Penn State  -13′  Casual  (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win.  But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)

Noon  East Carolina  -7  Casual

Noon  Central Florida  +10  Casual

3:30pm  Texas  +4  Nominal  (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)

3:30pm  Florida Atlantic  +21′  Casual  (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play.  But, we stick with our system for now.)

3:30pm  Army  +7  Casual  (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)

7pm  Marshall  +15′  Casual  (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)

7:15pm  South Carolina  +14  Casual

7:15pm  Ole Miss  +5  Nominal  (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed.  This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)

10:45pm  Oregon State  +13  Casual

11pm  Arizona  +5  Casual   (Arizona is bad.  Standford has been overrated.)

 

 

 

Monday Manifesto

Since last year’s playoffs we’ve been on an NFL tear.  Although we specialize in NFL games, we recognize our current trend is unsustainable.  In our last 16 NFL games, we’re 15-1-1.  Here we are for this season both college and pros.

  • Load up 1-0
  • High stakes 1-0
  • Solid bets 3-2
  • Casual bets 9-9
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets 14-12
    +$32.5

Monday Night Football

Tonight has a double-header.  Just as Thursday night, we’ve a split.  Our football brains say Steelers while our system says Redskins.  We learned our lesson on Thursday that our system is smarter than us.  On the later game we find value in the 49ers at home.  So this is where we are:

7:10pm  Redskins  +2   Nominal

10:20pm  49ers  +2′   Casual