Saturday’s Slate

The public has been winning these Thursday night contests.  Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends.  Something to keep in mind moving forward.

There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love.  At least, not yet.

Noon  Penn State  -13′  Casual  (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win.  But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)

Noon  East Carolina  -7  Casual

Noon  Central Florida  +10  Casual

3:30pm  Texas  +4  Nominal  (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)

3:30pm  Florida Atlantic  +21′  Casual  (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play.  But, we stick with our system for now.)

3:30pm  Army  +7  Casual  (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)

7pm  Marshall  +15′  Casual  (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)

7:15pm  South Carolina  +14  Casual

7:15pm  Ole Miss  +5  Nominal  (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed.  This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)

10:45pm  Oregon State  +13  Casual

11pm  Arizona  +5  Casual   (Arizona is bad.  Standford has been overrated.)

 

 

 

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Sunday Funday!!!

We’ll be watching the Ryder Cup today, but we still have picks.

The Broncos showed how to beat Cam Newton and the League is following the blueprint.  The Falcons getting points at home is too good to be true.  The Broncos traveling to muggy Florida and giving points is another one too good to be true.  The Titans continue to get no respect.  The Rams fall into that category too, but we’re walking away from that game.  We were on it earlier in the week.  We were leaning Bills too, but backing off on it as well.

Here you go…

1pm  Titans  +4  Nominal

1pm  Falcons  +3  Solid

4:05pm  Bucs  +3′  Casual

Great day to parlay the above and monitor closely.  You could hedge the late game if things are going well.

UPDATE:

Sorry.  We should have bet the Rams as we alluded to.  And we’re now done with Tampa Bay.  We’ve been too high on them all year.  We’ve been smart getting off the Panthers early, but disappointed on our TB decision.

Anyway…

Sunday Night:

Chiefs  +3′  Casual

Standings Update

  • Load up 1-0
  • High stakes 1-0
  • Solid bets 5-5
  • Casual bets 22-19
  • Nominal bets 6-9
  • Overall bets 14-12
    +$8.3

The above includes paying juice.

Nominal games are normally just bet for entertainment only meaning one of the few games on TV that we don’t have a good read on.  We typically side with our system even if our personal opinions go against it.

We’re not shocked our nominal games are losing, but our solid plays are highly disappointing.  Still, we’re up.

 

 

Early look at Super Bowl L

We called it spot on yesterday.  We’ve dominated our picks in the playoffs going 8-2 (really it is 9-1 but we had an idiot make a last moment change when posting our wild card picks).

The early line is Carolina Panthers -4′.  We actually thought it would open higher than that so we see value in Carolina right now.  The betting general public will likely be all over Carolina and drive this line upwards.  Early word is the wise guys (professional betters) are going he way of the Denver Broncos.  We’re not surprised by this either as two weeks prep time is a great equalizer.  The Broncos defense is superb.

And if the Panthers hadn’t crushed the Arizona Cardinals, this game likely would be Broncos -1.  Which then means there is value on the Broncos.  Which explains why the pro gambles are going with Denver.

But the truth is the Panthers have been undervalued all season.  Especially Cam Newton and the Panthers defense.  There are some plays to be had down the field against the Panthers D, but often requires the opposing QB to buy time to see it come to fruition.  Does Peyton Manning have the ability to take advantage of this at this stage of his career? At least Manning should have decent weather to work in.

Another angle of this is Carolina is peaking at the right time.  They are playing their best ball now.  Or did they peak one game too early?

One other item though, is even though we believe the betting public will go with Carolina, there is also a large segment of the population who loves Manning with others loathing Newton.  This too influences the betting lines.  We think it will likely keep the line from moving too much.

It is going to be fun to watch the line moves these two weeks.  If it ever gets down to 4 or lower, jump on Carolina.  If it ever gets up to 6, hedge with Denver.  Leave more on Carolina, but try to hit in the middle.

Lastly – remember the game is two weeks away.  Though you do want to take advantage of some early action where value may be leaning where you want, don’t load up too much one way or the other.  A lot can happen in two weeks.  Player slips in shower, blows ACL in practice, gets arrested.  A player could guarantee a victory during media day.  Who knows.

We’ll post our final pick closer to the game.