Thursday/Friday

Hey!  We’ve been traveling over the past week and had connectivity issues while we were out.  Here are tonight’s and tomorrow’s games.  We’ll update our standings later.

Good luck!

Thursday

7:30pm  Georgia Tech +10′  nominal

8:25pm  Patriots +1 nominal

Friday

7:30pm  Eastern Michigan  +3  solid

8:00pm  TCU  -20  casual

9:00pm  Southern Cal  +3  nominal

Superbowl Postmortem

You’re welcome.

We went 9-2 (actually 10-1) in the postseason.  We correctly picked the Super Bowl.  We suggested the under as well though not counted in our statistics.

We leave the game feeling the same way as we did going in.  The Carolina Panthers are probably the more skilled team, but in a one game scenario the Denver Broncos would be able to present unique challenges to Cam Newton and the Panthers.

What gets lost in all the coverage of the game is just how good the Panthers defense played.  They had five sacks on only 28 Denver passing plays.  That is a sack on 18% of drop backs.  Denver had three fumbles while only losing one.  Carolina had four fumbles while losing three.  Each team had one interception.

The keys to the game are were where the turnovers took place.  The Broncos one defensive TD and another fumble recovery at the doorstep to another were the game.  The Panthers also were in FG range another time when losing the ball and missed a FG on another possession.

The punt return by Denver when the player unwisely didn’t call a fair catch and was rewarded for his bravery  by inexplicably poor tackling by Carolina’s special teams allowing for a long return into scoring territory.

If these teams played ten times, we’re confident Carolina would win by six or more points at least seven times.

But, they only play once.  Which is why we advised picking Denver.

You’re welcome.

Final Super Bowl thoughts

We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning.  We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.

We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it.  We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points.  It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.

Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points.  But this is only for one game.  We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset.  We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.

The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle.  We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.

As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position.  We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0.  We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10.  Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.

Six points is a lot.  You can still get in on Denver for +5′.

Do so.  Casual to moderate only, though.

Have fun!

 

 

NFL Conference Championship Games

Well, well, well…..  how fast the season goes by.  Here we are two weeks away from Super Bowl Sunday.  No surprise we’re once again talking about Patriots and Broncos.  Getting old, actually.

No surprise either that Tom Brady is favored by 3′ at Denver.  That’s getting old too.  Brady and the Patriots normally receive additional action since they consistently deliver.  Peyton Manning on the other hand often falls short in the playoffs.  Everyone recognizes Peyton has trouble pushing the ball downfield.  And everyone recognizes Belichick has perhaps the game’s best coach.  Everyone thing points to the Patriots.

Which creates value.  We’ll go Denver.

3pm  Denver Broncos    +3′    (moderate bet)

Our reason is we think this will most likely be a 3 point game one way or the other.  So getting points is a huge advantage.  The Broncos defense is stout while the Patriots offense is not dynamic.  This game will come down to turnovers and field position.  Whoever manages the basics of the game will win.  Home field advantage and points is too much to pass up.

The NFC Championship game is intriguing.  The Carolina Panthers have been dominant on their way to a 15-1 record.  They’ve blown teams out in the first half while holding on to win in the second half.  For some reason the public gives them less credit for the first halves and is very critical of the second halves.

The Arizona Cardinals sit near the top of the rankings in both team offense and team defense.  They have great individual players on both sides of the ball – namely Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson.  People love Fitzgerald.  People don’t like Panthers’ Cam Newton.

Cam is going to be the best player on the field.  The Cardinals had travel difficulties this week.  They’re a dome team playing on a bad field in cold conditions.  The Panthers know a Super Bowl berth is at stake.  They’ll concentrate for an entire game and win emphatically.

6:40pm    Carolina Panthers    -3′    (Heavy bet)

Do you agree?  Let us know in the comments!

 

NFL Playoffs! Divisional Round

These are four interesting games to watch!  Three exciting games capped off with an interesting game injuries galore.

Today you have the hot team Kansas City going into the cold team New England.  The Patriots have Brady which automatically goes in their favor.  The Chiefs blasted the Patriots last time they came into Foxboro.  A cold Packers team blasted a hot Redskins team just last week, so that weights on bettors minds as well.  But, the Redskins were weak.  The Patriots have injuries, though.

We think this is a good game and five points is probably right where the line should be.  However, we won’t be shocked if the Chiefs win the game outright.  So we’ll take the Chiefs.

Saturday  4:35pm  Kansas City Chiefs    +5   (moderate to casual bet)

The Cardinals blew out the Packers just  a few weeks ago.  But that helps give the Packers players a chip on their shoulder.  You can’t rely on the Cards getting two defensive TD’s again this week.  The Packers offensive line is as healthy as it has been since mid-season and much healthier than it was in the last meeting.  The Packers defense is better than people realize making the seven point spread quite attractive.

Saturday  8:15pm    Green Bay Packers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

Seattle had to travel cross country twice in the last eight days (three times in last ten days).  The kickoff is early.  Seattle is everyone’s darling right now.  People are dismissing the Vikings performance due to the weather.  Panthers are still undervalued.

Sunday  1:05pm    Carolina Panthers    -2′    (moderate to casual bet)

The Steelers limp into Denver.  Peyton Manning gives the Broncos a coach on the field.  Big Ben always plays electric when injured.  The Steelers have resolve.  This is a tough game to pick.  But it is the playoffs in the divisional round and a team called the Steelers is getting 7′ points.  How do you not take that?

Sunday  4:40pm    Pittsburgh Steelers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

We say moderate to casual on all of these because during the regular season we would tend to go casual on these because there would be other games to play.  But with just these we like to have a little more action going.  Just play what you’re comfortable with and have fun.

Good luck!