Sunday Funday!

Yesterday was a fun introduction to football.  Great games with some big plays.  That Oklahoma – Houston game was shaping up to be one of the best games of all time, but the officials blew three huge calls all in Houston’s favor.  That tarnishes it a bit for us.  You know there will always be blown calls, you just hope they balance out or don’t impact the game too much.  But sometimes they do.  Anyways…  after our picks yesterday, here is where we stand for the season.

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     3-3
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    4-4

Based on our money scale, it equates to +$4 (includes juice deductions).

Don’t forget tonight’s game.   We casually got in on Texas at +4, but most places are at +3′ right now.  This game is weird to us.  We only shading the public.  It seems ND should be favored by more even though it is in Austin.  The value would seem to be on ND’s side and the public agrees.  But, how often is the public right?  So we’re going by way of Texas.

Also, a Monday preview.  Ole Miss +5′ – casual.


Sunday  7:30pm  Texas  +4  casual.

Monday 8:00pm  Ole Miss  +5′  casual.


Saturday’s Slate

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        0-0
  • Casual bets     1-0
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    1-1

The biggest bets you win are the losses you didn’t play.  🙂

Early in the season we’ll have few games we feel strongly about.  There are too many unknowns.  Looking at tomorrow, here is where we’re at:

Noon   Bowling Green   +28  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Kent State  +22′  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Wisconsin  +11′  Solid

5:30pm  UNC  +3 ‘ Casual

8:00pm  New Mexico State  +9’  Casual Bet Only

9:00pm  Auburn  +9  Casual Bet Only


7:30pm  Texas  +4  Casual Bet Only


Thursday’s Shame. Friday Fun.

We’re ashamed we missed tonight’s games.  We’re out of sync during the beginning of the season and didn’t adapt well.  We try to wait until game day since things can change so rapidly.

As we write this, our leanings look good.  Casual only as we normally are early in the year, but frustrating since we missed out on our own end let alone what we would have suggested to you.  Our sincere apologies.

With 12 minutes to go Vandi is up by 10.  All we can say is only 9% of the betting public went with Vandi yet the line kept going against them.  That means the high rollers went the way of Vandi and we go the way of the high rollers.  Who knows where the game ends up, but we would have gone casually with Vandi -5.

We were leaning Florida International, but that line went weird.  Indiana jumped to -10 with a  majority of bets, but only 57%.  We’re not sure where we would have ended up here, but we’re guessing an initial casual bet would have dipped to a nominal one for Florida International.

We were leaning Oregon State too.  We feel sick to our stomachs.

Live and learn.

So we jump ahead to tomorrow now.  Earlier than we like….

Friday 9pm EST  Kansas State +15  Casual bet only


NCAA Championship Game

We finished the year strong and are sitting healthy.  We’ve a year of perspective to draw upon.  As many of you know, we typically shade the public because when the public goes one way, they create value the other direction.

However, sometimes the public is just flat out correct.  This happens more so in college than it does in the pros.  In the National Championship Game, early betting is going the way of the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The line started at 6 and is now up to 7.  Once it goes over 7 we envision money coming in on the Clemson Tigers.

We would normally shade towards Clemson in this situation generically speaking.  However, even though Clemson performed better than our expectations against Oklahoma and looked impressive, we provide some context.

Clemson plays in a weak conference.  The #2 and #3 teams (UNC and Florida State) in that conference were decimated in their bowl contests.  Oklahoma may have been the last team standing in the Big XII’s round-robbin schedule, but they were likely the 3rd best team in the conference.  Baylor was the best, but suffered an unusual amount of injuries to key personnel.  TCU was the 2nd best when they had Trevone Boykin, but losing him for a brief stretch proved their undoing.

If this was the old BCS system and it was one game with no playoffs between Clemson and Alabama, we’d take Clemson and the seven points.  Our reasoning is Clemson would have all these weeks to prepare for the game against one opponent.  But with Clemson having to prepare first for Oklahoma and only one week to primarily focus on Alabama, we feel the Jimmy’s and Joe’s will prove even more important than the X’s and O’s.

That all being said, we feel the line is about where it should be.  We suggest placing a casual bet on Alabama now before the line gets greater than 7.  If it drops below 7, we suggest upping your bet a bit to get that value.

Alabama Crimson Tide    -7   (casual bet only unless the line drops)

Bowl Game Action

We’ve a slew of games over the next few days.  We’ve plenty of leanings in games from a casual perspective, but only a couple we feel strongly about. In analyzing ourselves over the past year, we’ve refined out techniques to operate on quality rather than quantity.

We showed this in only choosing five NFL games Sunday and winning four of them.  We also said to load up on Baylor and were vindicated.

Here is what we suggest coming up:

Thursday    4pm    Oklahoma Sooners  -3′  (moderate bet)

Saturday     6:45pm    Texas Christian Horned Frogs  PK  (moderate bet)

We actually would lean heavier on TCU than Oklahoma.

We understand there are a bunch of games begging to have some action, so here is a list of our casual leanings – for entertainment purposes only.

Notre Dame +6′, Oklahoma State +7, Kansas State +13

Happy new year!

*******UPDATE****** 8:20am EST on 12/31

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, was arrested last night.  If he doesn’t play in the game, that changes everything.  If you’ve already bet on TCU, you may still have time to hedge before there is a line change.  You could bet Oregon now while it is still a pick and if Boykin doesn’t play, you can wait until TCU is getting about 2′ points and then take them.  You might hit in the middle and hit both ways.  We do think TCU can still win this game without Boykin, but we can’t predict the psychological impact his loss would have on the team.  Of course, TCU could do the “innocent until proven guilty” and allow him to play.


Tuesday Bowl Game

There are multiple games today but only one that catches our eye.

5:30pm  Baylor Bears  +3′  (heavy bet, you can also take the money line at +150)


We realize Baylor is decimated by injuries on offense.  They’re starting a 3rd string QB and are without their top WR and RT.  They’ve also lost 3 of their last 4 games.  But that was against Big XII competition.  This game is against ACC competition.  Baylor’s speed on defense will create some big plays and the Baylor running game will have consistent success.

No game is a lock with some things unpredictable such as turnovers, penalties, and field position.  But we feel good about this one.

Christmas Eve Games

It has been a fun season.  As you know we shade the public.  The public has been on a roll the last week which means we’ve taken it on the chin.

We’ll take our lessons with us into next season as we refine the way we shade.  For now, here are some early Christmas presents for you:

College Bowl Games on Christmas Eve

Noon  MTSU  +4′  (casual bet only)

8pm   Cincinnati  +3  (casual bet only)



8:25pm  San Diego Chargers  +6  (heavy bet)


If you can explore a money line bet now on Baylor in their bowl game next week and they are shown as the underdog, get something on it now.

Merry Christmas!

Saturday’s Slate

On Thursday night our system picked Detroit with the points, but we couldn’t bring ourselves to post the pick.  We often disagree with our system, but it is correct more often than we are.  This was the first time all year we backed off.  We got lucky.

Saturday’s college games:

4pm  Florida  +18

7:30pm  Air Force  +6′

8:17pm  Iowa  +4

A casual early play would be the Under 67 in the Texas/Baylor game, but we don’t like Unders too much in college games.  Plus, the total in this game has dropped so we lost too much value.  We should have gotten in earlier, but heavy rollers betting brought the line down even though more wagers overall came in on the over.

Good luck!