Thursday Night NFL Game – Week 5

We regret we’ve no leanings on the two college games tonight.  The NFL game is a curious one and we’re going to contradict ourselves.  When we posted our pool picks, we took the Colts -2′.  Some places are not even providing a line at the moment due to the question marks around the Colts’ QB situation.  The line has also moved to the Texans -2′.

This is a situation where the public is betting the Colts both on the spread and straight up at a 61% clip.  However, the line move indicates the heavy hitters are backing the Texans.  Additionally, the public is backing the under play at a 77% clip moving the line from 45 points to 43′.

We will likely never recommend taking an over as the under is most often the smarter play.   But, we would not recommend the under here.  If we were going to lay a little money for entertainment value only, we would take the over.

As for the game, we’ll go against our pool pick and make a casual play only on Texans at -2′.

If we had played this correctly, and we did not, we would have taken the Texans at +2′ and now grabbed the Colts at +2′ and attempted to land in the center.  Basically gambling the juice of one game to win twice.  Low risk – high reward.

UPDATE at 7:52 EST

With the announcement Luck wasn’t playing the line has moved again.  Houston is now -5′.

We placed a casual play only on Colts completely contradicting our earlier pick.  It all depends on when you got in.  Just go small and enjoy the anxiety of having something risked.


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