We finally learned to lay off the primetime games heading into the weekend.
Noon Florida -10′ Casual
Noon Indiana +7′ Solid
Noon Purdue +14 Solid
3:30pm Georgia Tech +14 Casual
3:30pm Army +14 Casual
3:30pm Missouri -3′ Nominal
7pm Hawaii +18 Nominal
10pm Arizona +16 Nominal
We did exactly what we said yesterday and started doubling or nothing and ended up breaking even. We don’t like having to do that and apologize to those who follow us. You can get away with that with a haphazard betting style online or if you visit multiple casinos or have multiple bookies. But if you only have one local bookie, then you can’t get away with that.
Here’s tonight’s game.
8:30pm Bills +7 Solid (The Bills have a better QB.)
We salvaged our Saturday with a UFC pick of Tony Ferguson. We attempted to update the site showing that, but there was a technical error.
Today, we’re going to chase all day if we fall early. The double-or-nothing theory.
1pm Ravens +3′ Casual (Big Ben is “expected” to play. If he doesn’t then this is great value. If he does, it is an overreaction by the public since the Ravens are home.)
1pm Browns +7′ High stakes. (The Browns aren’t as bad as they seem. This is an easy game for the Cowboys to have a let down. Browns get Coleman back at WR which will open up the field quite a bit.)
4:05pm Rams +3 Casual (Panthers were exposed. One good game doesn’t change that.)
4:25pm Colts +7′ Casual (Packers defense has too many injuries for the Colts to not at least get a back door cover.)
4:25pm Titans +4 Casual (We admit, we lose betting on the Titans almost as much as we do betting on the Bucs. We’re not sure why we keep finding value here. Perhaps because the public keeps winning betting against them.)
8:30pm Raiders Pk Nominal (Derek Carr.)
Monday Night Football
8:25pm Bills +7 Casual (Seahawks are overrated because their QB is overrated. Tyrod Taylor is better, which isn’t saying much.)
We’ve finally learned our Thursday night lesson. The public will win on Thursday more often than not. Saturdays, though, are another matter.
Noon Illinois +8′ Casual
12:30pm Pitt +5 Casual
3:30pm Clemson -27 Casual
3:30pm Fresno State +16′ Casual
4pm Arizona +15 Casual
4pm SMU +3 Casual
7pm NC State +7 Solid
8pm East Carolina +10 Casual
8pm LSU +8 Solid
8pm Ohio State -16′ Casual
10:15pm Utah State +4′ Casual
Parlay Illinois, Pitt, NC State, and LSU.
I think we keep finding ourselves on the side of the Buccaneers and wonder whether we should continue to do this. Another Thursday night and the public is largely on one side. Tonight they are on the side of the Falcons. We find ourselves on the side of an injury riddled Bucs squad. They’ll have to rely on the arm of Winston who is interception prone. But, he also has a history of beating the Falcons.
So….
8:25pm Bucs +4′ Solid
We felt good about yesterday throughout the day only to come up short in the end. You’ll have days like that.
Tonight Jay Cutler is back for the Bears to face a Vikings team that was exposed a bit against the Eagles. Of course, the Eagles defense is pretty good, but the Bears will be desperate for a win. Six points is a ton in the NFL unless you’re facing the Patriots.
8:30pm Bears +6 Solid
Winner winner chicken dinner! Yesterday was a good day. $$$
We love when our system starts having days like that. They become more frequent as the season progresses. Today’s games:
9:30am Redskins +3 Casual (Josh Norman’s return is big here.)
1pm Bills +7 Casual (going against Brady makes one’s stomach turn.)
1pm Bucs +1′ Solid (We’ve been high on the Bucs all year and paid the price. Doubling down.)
4:25pm Packers +3 Casual (The Packers patch work defense will need to hold up on the back end to have a chance here.)
4:25 Packers/Falcons Under 53 Casual (see above.)
8:30pm Eagles +5 Solid (Eagles defense is pretty good. Should be a close game.)
The public has been winning these Thursday night contests. Perhaps to draw them in for the weekends. Something to keep in mind moving forward.
There a lot of casual games today, but we couldn’t find one we love. At least, not yet.
Noon Penn State -13′ Casual (heading into this we expected to go the other way since PSU was coming off the big win. But the public is surprisingly going the other way. So…)
Noon East Carolina -7 Casual
Noon Central Florida +10 Casual
3:30pm Texas +4 Nominal (our system actually likes this game a lot, but our own brains tell us Baylor, so we trimmed this back to a nominal play.)
3:30pm Florida Atlantic +21′ Casual (we’ve had no luck with Florida Atlantic all year, and don’t like this play. But, we stick with our system for now.)
3:30pm Army +7 Casual (we didn’t realize Army was having a respectable season until this game showed up in our system.)
7pm Marshall +15′ Casual (we’ve not liked Marshall much.)
7:15pm South Carolina +14 Casual
7:15pm Ole Miss +5 Nominal (Auburn has played well and the public has noticed. This one doesn’t sit easy with us.)
10:45pm Oregon State +13 Casual
11pm Arizona +5 Casual (Arizona is bad. Standford has been overrated.)
Sorry, nothing to glean from tonights college games. We lean towards USC if you must play the late game.
Here is tonight’s NFL contest and the early Sunday game.
NFL
8:25pm Jaguars +3 Casual
8:25pm Jaguars/Titans Under 44 Nominal
Sunday
9:30am Redskins +3 Casual
9:30am Redskins/Bengals Under 47′ Casual
Time to stop the bleeding. But, not a lot of great games today.
1pm Eagles +3 Nominal*
1pm Jaguars -1 Solid
1pm Raiders/Jaguars Under 47 Casual
*The Eagles is simply a system pick. Our own knowledge doesn’t support it, but we trust our system. On the surface, we have an undefeated Vikings team with two weeks to prepare with a QB who was in the Eagles’ offense just 8 weeks ago. The Vikings should have been able to pick Bradford’s brain on the entire Eagles’ playbook. We can’t see how the Eagles cover this, but neither does the general public. And the public is rarely right.
UPDATE
Chasing…
4:05pm Bucs +1 Solid
4:25pm Chargers +5′ Nominal
gridiron shark 