Monday Meanderings

The public did well on Saturday.  Not so much on Sunday.

Did you know Memphis has a tougher schedule than Iowa?

Remember when Urban Meyer said he would have kicked Jameis Winston off the team if he were at Florida State at the time of his illegal activity?  Yep, about that…

TCU will win it all.

Temple is a good team, but ND is overrated.

Did the New Orleans Saints and NY Giants join the Big XII?  Scoring like that sure seemed like it.

Green Bay ran into a buzz saw Sunday Night at Denver.  You could see it coming, but then GB had some key defensive injuries early on too.

All year we’ve felt that NFC was the better conference, but not any more.

Appears 49ers are sticking by Kap.  They just traded Vernon Davis to Denver.

The Lions have quit on their coach.

Monday Night Football

Colts +5′  (Casual play only).  You can play the under 46 casually as well.

Monday Meanderings

Wow did we take it on the chin yesterday!  Ouch!  There are about three times a year when the house gets slaughtered by the public.  We thought it would be last week, but it ended up being this week.  That is why you play for fun and not to make a living.  It is also the beauty of having a system.  No overthinking or overreacting.  Just keep moving forward with confidence.

Clemson just scored again!  …….The Hurricanes haven’t been good since they were in the Big East.

The Georgia Tech win over Florida State was fun.  When FSU lined up for the FG, you could feel that type of ending coming.  It is an example of why we love football so much.

Baylor has fingers crossed on QB Seth Russell’s injury.  A small broken bone in neck, but there is talk he may be back after their bye week.  But it’s a broken neck!  If he can’t return, can Baylor stay in the National Championship hunt?  They face a tough schedule down the stretch.  At Kansas State, TCU, and Oklahoma State while hosting Oklahoma and Texas.

There are rumors around West Virginia and Virginia Tech of bringing in Rich Rodriquez from Arizona.  He just lost at home to an unranked team.  The guy had a good stretch while at WVU and parlayed it into a huge contract from Michigan where he failed.  He’s an overrated coach.  He’d probably prefer to coach in the weak ACC rather than a tough Pac 12 or Big XII though.  WVU would be idiots to move on from Holgerson.

We correctly predicted USC upsetting Utah.  The Utes could run the table, but will likely have no shot at the National Championship simply due to their name.

Redskins had a good comeback victory.  Cousins threw over 300 yards!  Bastards didn’t cover and Cousins still sucks.

Vikings are for real and have two games against the Packers coming.

Cowboys blew the game against the Giants.  No reason for them not to have won that game.  When Romo and Dez are back they will be a tough team to contend with and will likely win the division.

Why are the Chargers not a better team?  Rivers puts up great stats every week, but they don’t translate into wins.  It is their dink and dunk offense.  It takes to many plays to score and allows for a mistake to be made to kill the drive.

Packers play both the Broncos and Panthers in coming weeks!  Exciting stuff!

The Dolphins are back to playing real football and victories are coming easy.  They’re a threat in the AFC.

For those of you who watch the JAX – BUF game on Yahoo received an early morning treat.  Great game!

Monday Night Football

Ravens    +9

NFL Picks Recap: 12-6

Yes, 12 – 6.

Incredible week.

We started it off by correctly picking a New Orleans (+4) over Atlanta.  We capped it by correctly picking Philadelphia (-4) to cover against the Giants and Under 51.

Overall, we went 3-2 on Over/Under plays and 10-3 in game spread picks.

For the season, here is our NFL record:

NFL Regular Picks with spread equals 22 – 15 (excludes casual plays)

NFL Casual Picks with spread equals 5 – 3

NFL Overall with spread equals 27-18 (includes both regular and casual plays)

NFL Pool Picks with spread equals 25 – 17 (picks earlier in the week)

You can see how our picks mature from Wednesday’s Pool Picks to game day picks.

NFL POOL PICKS

Remember that these are our preliminary picks for pools only.  We’ll select true bets closer to game times.

San Francisco    +6′

Jacksonville    +5′

Cleveland    +5′

Pittsburgh    -2

Houston    +4′

New England    -9

Detroit    -2′

Tennessee    +4′

Washington    -3′

New Orleans    +4′

Oakland    +4

New York Giants    -3′

Philadelphia    +3

Baltimore    +7

Monday Meanderings

What constitutes a catch in the NFL?  That TD “catch” by Golden Tate was bogus.  If I were a Bears fan, I would have lost my mind.

Speaking of losing my mind…  I’m not a Colts fan whatsoever, but that fake punt was the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.  It was an insult to the game of football and I did lose my mind.  We still covered, though….  (wink)

How about that implosion by the Michigan punter?  First he drops the snap and then instead of falling on the ball he decides to pitch it perfectly to hit a Michigan State defender in stride racing for the winning touchdown.  I don’t think he could have set it up better if he tried.  We can still see Michigan beating Ohio State.  Michigan State is well coached, but not that good.  So Big Ten could have some challenges get into the Playoff.  Of course, an overrated Iowa team taking its lumps to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game will conveniently take care of that.  Ohio State will make the playoffs.

In today’s college football, to see a game end 9-6 is unheard of.  Georgia – Missouri somehow pulled that off.

Seahawks can’t seem to hold onto victories any more.  Two straight weeks they’ve allowed a team to come back to beat them. They may not make the playoffs this season.

We still like Pittsburgh as the team most likely to ruin the Patriots’ season come playoff time.

The Packers need to figure out how to move the ball with all their wide receiver injuries.  Eddie Lacy must be playing on a still injured ankle because he can’t seem to do anything.  Bye week came at right time for them.

Jay Gruden defends Cousins for stat lines similar to those of RG3 that make Gruden publicly trash him.  If RG3 weren’t a black conservative, there would be howls of racism.  The ‘skins need to give up on Cousins.

Now that Miami is back to running the ball, look for them to be competitive again.

EJ Manuel  didn’t look bad.

Monday Night Football

The Giants getting 4 points seems like the obvious play.  So of course we’ll go the opposite.

Philadelphia  -4 and Under 51

Monday Meanderings

First, people want to know our overall record thus far.  Remember we break picks down into categories of pool picks, regular picks, and casual picks.  Here we go:

NFL Pool Picks with spread equals 17 – 11

NFL Regular Picks with spread equals 13 – 11

NFL Casual Picks with spread equals 2 – 3

College Regular Picks with spread equals 20 – 15

College Casual Picks equals 3 – 0

We dug a hole our first week out, but quickly dug out of it.  Over the course of the year we feel confident we’ll correctly pick over 60% of our games.

Now for our Monday Meanderings….

This week’s college ranked teams to fall were #10, #13, #17, #19, & #23.  Oklahoma State would have been another if West Virginia had a QB.  Look for a change in West Virginia from Skyler Howard to William Crest after their game at Baylor this week. The reason is they then have a bye before traveling to TCU for a nationally televised game on a Thursday night.

We correctly forecasted that Texas would spoil someone’s season this year.  This is a team that has been underperforming, but has the talent to turn it around.  They could wreck the entire Big XII’s chances for a national championship, though we don’t believe that will happen.

Michigan State continues to get by, but it is only a matter of time before they take a fall.  We expect them to lose at least two games the remainder of the year.

Look for Michigan to be this year’s Ohio State.  The only difference being last year Ohio State lost to a horrible team yet somehow were still given an opportunity to get in the playoffs over more worthy teams while this year Michigan lost to a solid Utah squad.

Our college playoff predictions this year for now are:  Michigan, Notre Dame, TCU & Alabama.  Potential replacements are Ohio State, Baylor, Utah, and Clemson.

Aaron Rodgers is human!  Three turnovers?!  Yet they still won by 14 points.  The Packers defense is for real and has depth.

If you had jumped off the Eagles bandwagon after a couple weeks this season, don’t think about jumping back on.  They beat up on a bad Saints squad.  The Eagles aren’t as bad as they looked all year, but they are not as good as they looked yesterday. Stay away.

It appears the football gods are still not done punishing the Seahawks for their improbable comeback last year against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game.  Not only did they have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory in the Super Bowl, but then yesterday lost a 17 point lead to Cincinnati to lose again.  Packers fans smile.

The Redskins have a solid defense.  Sad they choose to play the “safe” QB in Cousins who is simply too limited to take them where they want to go.  RG3 may have a lower floor than Cousins, but he also has a higher ceiling.  The NFL isn’t the place to allow fear to drive your decisions.  Go with the higher ceiling player and see what happens.

We simply can not believe the Lions are winless.  This team has too much talent to be winless.  We won’t be shocked if they rebound to 8 – 8.

Poor Derek Carr was betrayed.  He had the Raiders poised for the upset against the Broncos with a late game drive into Broncos territory where he threaded the needle between two open Raiders receivers running crossing patterns.  Unfortunately neither receiver was looking for the pas and it went right in-between the two into the hands of a Broncos defender who intercepted the pass.

You can’t stop Josh McCown, you can only hope to contain him.   Just kidding.  But for fantasy players, he is an okay QB playing for a bad defensive team.  He may put up monster stats all year.

Monday Night Football

Take the under 46.

If you want to be able to root for one team, then a casual play only here – San Diego -3′

Monday Meanderings

We had a mildly successful weekend.  The public is going to continue to back certain teams and be rewarded for it.  Green Bay is one of those teams.  New England is another.  We’re going to take the approach in the future of “if you can’t beat them, join them.”  We’ll likely only do so casually, even though it goes against our methodology as whole.

Here are our random meanderings…

One of the things that makes college football so great is the chaos.  This week the following rankings lost:  #3, #6, #7, #8, #19, #21, & #23.  Sure, many to other ranked teams, but it is glorious to watch. Other highly ranked teams barely escaped.  Looking at you Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  (Look for both to lose soon in coming week(s).

Notre Dame will still get in the college football playoffs.  Not because they will be deserving, but that they have an easy schedule and will likely only lose one game all year – until the playoffs.  Ohio State was not deserving of being in the playoffs last year.  The best team was frozen out in TCU.

Speaking of TCU, certain teams in the Big XII just match up well against others.  TCU against Texas is an example.  When those match ups occur, blow outs follow.

The SEC’s over-rated-ness is tiring.  If ever there is a season where they may get shut out of a championship opportunity, though, this is it.  One assumes Notre Dame will earn one spot, Ohio State another (Michigan State is overrated), Baylor or TCU a third since it would be nuts for them to get robbed again, then Clemson or Utah.  The ACC is so weak and the Pac 12 is down, so one of those teams needs to run the table.  If either don’t, though, expect the SEC to sneak in.  If Arizona State beats Utah, though, Pac 12 is out as Arizona State lost to Texas A&M week one.  Michigan could play a spoiler in this for the Big Ten, but if they did they would have a chance of sneaking in themselves.  Sounds nuts, right?  But Ohio State lost at home last year to a deplorable VA Tech in somehow got in over a TCU squad who barely lost to a one loss Baylor.  That was nuts!

We said last week we’ve been underestimating the Arizona Cardinals, but went against them again and finally won.

The Denver Broncos defense is going to have to carry them all season.  They’ll definitely make the playoffs, but does anyone see them beating the NFL’s best teams?

Green Bay finally gets by two teams that have haunted them in recent years – Seattle and San Francisco.  Green Bay’s defense looks very solid.  They won’t see an elite QB though until Dallas in week 13.  Yes, we just said Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning are not elite.

Colin Kaepernick is horrible.  He has always been horrible.  You make him a white QB who wears Christianity on his arm and he’s out of the league.  You make him a conservative black and he’ll be relegated to third string.

The new extra point rule is killing kickers.  Not only are kickers missing those, but now some can’t make a kick to save their lives.  An erosion of confidence.

Cincinnati and New England will be vying for the AFC Championship.  Potential spoiler will be a late surging Pittsburgh Steelers.

Atlanta and Green Bay will be vying for the NFC Championship, but the NFC has more teams that could play potential spoiler – including a late surging Dallas Cowboys.

Monday Night Football:

Detroit +9′

Monday Meanderings

Weeks 1 and 3 of the NFL season typically go the way of the public.  But as the season wears on they tend to go the way of the house.  Our suggestions will often run contrary to the general public.  And over the course of time will work in our favor.  In the future we’ll begin to offer some analysis to this effect to better explain some of our methodology.

Jeff Triplette’s crew is historically among the worst crews in the NFL.  We find it perplexing they would be given any nationally televised prime time contests.  Moving forward we will consider not offering suggestions of plays on games officiated by this crew.

An added note to the Texas game on Saturday.  The Texas defense also clearly recovered a fumble, but the Oklahoma State QB who fumbled the ball dove in late and while placing his right hand firmly to the ground to help push himself against the pile he was able to get his left hand around the ball.  Although a Texas defender had two arms wrapped around the ball, the QB was awarded possession.  Nuts.

Is TCU playing to the level of their competition?  TCU was the best team in the country last year even though they were BS’d out of an opportunity to prove it in the playoffs.  This year they seem complacent.  Very fortunate to escape with a win against Texas Tech and now face a underrated Texas squad who is bound to catch a break sooner than later.

We have under appreciated the Arizona Cardinals.  Likely the NFC’s second best team.

Bills may be second best team in the AFC.  Broncos likely are right now, but once the weather turns cold, we’ll take the Bills.

We predict Kam Chancellor will pull a hamstring in the coming weeks.

The Redskins would be a decent squad if they had a good QB.  Cousins is decent moving in the pocket, and does keep his eyes down field while scrambling, but his accuracy is worse than Tebow’s.  Amazing how often Redskins receivers get open – or at least against the Giants.

Bengals fans laughed out loud when Big Ben took a shot to the knee getting injured.  Likely disappointed he wasn’t out for the year after the Steelers did something similar to Carson Palmer when he was a Bengal.

Speaking of Bengals, Andy Dalton is attempting to promote himself to the upper echelon of QB’s in the league.  Much like Flacco did on his Super Bowl run.  Flacco isn’t elite, but is in the tier below.  Dalton likely working his way to the same level.

The Eagles won, but Chip Kelly’s in over his head.  Remember, humility is always a second away.

Tampa Bay’s kicker missed three FG’s.  THREE!!!!  Make one and they cover/push.

Did anyone see Jimmy Clausen jump up after his run for a first down and talk trash?  I knew that was the beginning of the end for the Bear’s chances in that game.   He’s won one game in his career.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

The general public is going the way of Green Bay with a majority of bets being placed on the Packers, which makes sense, right?  However, the line is dropping.  This indicates the heavy hitters are backing the Chiefs.

Our gambling experience says back the Chiefs.  Our football experience says back the Packers.  This means casual bet only.

And take the Chiefs, +6.

The Chiefs are built to stop the Packers.  Great rush with front four on defense, Jamal Charles a slasher like Forte who gashed the Packers just two weeks ago.  Alex Smith is no Russell Wilson, but he does have the ability to run some.  Packers coming off emotional win against the hated Seahawks and travel to their nemesis San Francisco next week.  Almost a trap game.  Aaron Rodgers, though, can take control of the game all by himself, so casual play only.