Bowl Game Action

We’ve a slew of games over the next few days.  We’ve plenty of leanings in games from a casual perspective, but only a couple we feel strongly about. In analyzing ourselves over the past year, we’ve refined out techniques to operate on quality rather than quantity.

We showed this in only choosing five NFL games Sunday and winning four of them.  We also said to load up on Baylor and were vindicated.

Here is what we suggest coming up:

Thursday    4pm    Oklahoma Sooners  -3′  (moderate bet)

Saturday     6:45pm    Texas Christian Horned Frogs  PK  (moderate bet)

We actually would lean heavier on TCU than Oklahoma.

We understand there are a bunch of games begging to have some action, so here is a list of our casual leanings – for entertainment purposes only.

Notre Dame +6′, Oklahoma State +7, Kansas State +13

Happy new year!

*******UPDATE****** 8:20am EST on 12/31

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, was arrested last night.  If he doesn’t play in the game, that changes everything.  If you’ve already bet on TCU, you may still have time to hedge before there is a line change.  You could bet Oregon now while it is still a pick and if Boykin doesn’t play, you can wait until TCU is getting about 2′ points and then take them.  You might hit in the middle and hit both ways.  We do think TCU can still win this game without Boykin, but we can’t predict the psychological impact his loss would have on the team.  Of course, TCU could do the “innocent until proven guilty” and allow him to play.

 

Tuesday Bowl Game

There are multiple games today but only one that catches our eye.

5:30pm  Baylor Bears  +3′  (heavy bet, you can also take the money line at +150)

 

We realize Baylor is decimated by injuries on offense.  They’re starting a 3rd string QB and are without their top WR and RT.  They’ve also lost 3 of their last 4 games.  But that was against Big XII competition.  This game is against ACC competition.  Baylor’s speed on defense will create some big plays and the Baylor running game will have consistent success.

No game is a lock with some things unpredictable such as turnovers, penalties, and field position.  But we feel good about this one.

Sunday Funday!

Today’s pickings are few.  Good luck!

1:00pm  New York Jets  +3  (casual bet)

1:00pm  Indianapolis Colts  +3  (moderate bet)

4:05pm  New Orleans Saints  -3  (moderate bet)

4:25pm  Saint Louis Rams  +12  (moderate bet)

8:30pm  New York Giants  +7  (casual bet)

Parlay them too.

The Unders in the Packers/Cardinals and Jaguars/Saints look enticing as the public is taking the Overs in both, but we’re holding off.

 

 

Christmas Eve Games

It has been a fun season.  As you know we shade the public.  The public has been on a roll the last week which means we’ve taken it on the chin.

We’ll take our lessons with us into next season as we refine the way we shade.  For now, here are some early Christmas presents for you:

College Bowl Games on Christmas Eve

Noon  MTSU  +4′  (casual bet only)

8pm   Cincinnati  +3  (casual bet only)

 

NFL

8:25pm  San Diego Chargers  +6  (heavy bet)

 

If you can explore a money line bet now on Baylor in their bowl game next week and they are shown as the underdog, get something on it now.

Merry Christmas!

Sunday Funday w/ UFC snapshot

UFC Event

Conor is no longer a huge favorite.  Not a bad time to pick.  If you picked Aldo when the odds were good for you, you can hedge to the point you can’t lose.

Jeremy Stephens has a punchers chance with decent odds.  I think Holloway will win, but not a bad option.

Odds have swung back to have Rockhold the underdog.  Decent time to pay some cash on him.

NFL

1pm games

Sea/Bal Under 40′  (over seems to good to be true)

Baltimore +11

Tenn/NYJ  Under 43

Ind/Jax   Under 46

St. Louis +3

Alt/Car  Under 46

Buff/Phil  Under 47

Pitt/Cinci  Under 50′

4:05pm  Oak/Den  Under 43′

8:30pm Houston +4

 

 

Sunday Funday!

Wow!  I hope you didn’t mi$$ out on ye$terday’$ pick$ that were up on Friday night!

3-0 baby!!!!!  $$$$$$$$$$$$$

4-0 if you include the ca$ual play.

Today’s games:

1pm  Vikings  +2

1pm  Ravens/Dolphins  Under 43

1pm  Browns  +10  (casual play only)

1pm  Rams  +6

1pm  Bucs  +1

1pm  Falcons/Bucs  Under 45′

1pm  Jets/Giants  Under 47′

4:05pm  Chiefs/Raiders Under 45′

4:25pm  Eagles  +9

8:30pm  Colts/Steelers  Under 50

Saturday’s Slate

On Thursday night our system picked Detroit with the points, but we couldn’t bring ourselves to post the pick.  We often disagree with our system, but it is correct more often than we are.  This was the first time all year we backed off.  We got lucky.

Saturday’s college games:

4pm  Florida  +18

7:30pm  Air Force  +6′

8:17pm  Iowa  +4

A casual early play would be the Under 67 in the Texas/Baylor game, but we don’t like Unders too much in college games.  Plus, the total in this game has dropped so we lost too much value.  We should have gotten in earlier, but heavy rollers betting brought the line down even though more wagers overall came in on the over.

Good luck!