NFL Kickoff… Carolina’s revenge?

Those who were with us on our infamous playoff run know how high we were on Carolina as a team even though in the one-game format advised taking Denver.  We stated in a multiple game format we’d take Carolina.  Here we are…

We’ve a systematic way of making our picks which are based on value.  We typically avoid using strictly our football observations.  We normally have unanimity in our selections at the site, but not on this game.  Our system says the value is on Denver, but our football opinion says Carolina wipes the floor with them.

This is similar to our Notre Dame – Texas debate where we correctly went with our system and picked Texas.  But that was unanimous.  This isn’t.

But it is the first NFL game of the season and we need to make a pick.  Sometimes you have to get away from the system.  As editor, I’m the tie breaker.

Thursday  8:30pm  Carolina -3    Casual Only

Weekend Recap

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     4-4
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    5-5
  • +$3.85

We felt good about Ole Miss until they went on a turnover binge.  Not sure if FSU just got them that flustered, if it manifested itself among the team.  All in all a solid week.  We felt good about a few more games than we had the courage to move into the Solid category, but this early in the season we’re still feeling things out.

The NFL Season kicks off Thursday.  This is shaping up to one of those rare instances our own football opinion will go against our betting opinion.  We’ve been quite good about being objective in our analysis, but we feel strongly that Carolina is a better team than Denver.  Unfortunately so doesn’t much of the public.  The line is currently Carolina -3 and it may go further.  We’ve not taken an official stance yet, though, so time to come to our senses.

The way we’re leaning on NFL Sunday’s picks, readers are likely to roll their eyes, so our Thursday pick is important in keeping our credibility.  We hope to make our Thursday pick by tomorrow night.  Stay tuned!

 

Sunday Funday!

Yesterday was a fun introduction to football.  Great games with some big plays.  That Oklahoma – Houston game was shaping up to be one of the best games of all time, but the officials blew three huge calls all in Houston’s favor.  That tarnishes it a bit for us.  You know there will always be blown calls, you just hope they balance out or don’t impact the game too much.  But sometimes they do.  Anyways…  after our picks yesterday, here is where we stand for the season.

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     3-3
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    4-4

Based on our money scale, it equates to +$4 (includes juice deductions).

Don’t forget tonight’s game.   We casually got in on Texas at +4, but most places are at +3′ right now.  This game is weird to us.  We only shading the public.  It seems ND should be favored by more even though it is in Austin.  The value would seem to be on ND’s side and the public agrees.  But, how often is the public right?  So we’re going by way of Texas.

Also, a Monday preview.  Ole Miss +5′ – casual.

Recap:

Sunday  7:30pm  Texas  +4  casual.

Monday 8:00pm  Ole Miss  +5′  casual.

Saturday’s Slate

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        0-0
  • Casual bets     1-0
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    1-1

The biggest bets you win are the losses you didn’t play.  🙂

Early in the season we’ll have few games we feel strongly about.  There are too many unknowns.  Looking at tomorrow, here is where we’re at:

Noon   Bowling Green   +28  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Kent State  +22′  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Wisconsin  +11′  Solid

5:30pm  UNC  +3 ‘ Casual

8:00pm  New Mexico State  +9’  Casual Bet Only

9:00pm  Auburn  +9  Casual Bet Only

SUNDAY PREVIEW

7:30pm  Texas  +4  Casual Bet Only

 

Thursday’s Shame. Friday Fun.

We’re ashamed we missed tonight’s games.  We’re out of sync during the beginning of the season and didn’t adapt well.  We try to wait until game day since things can change so rapidly.

As we write this, our leanings look good.  Casual only as we normally are early in the year, but frustrating since we missed out on our own end let alone what we would have suggested to you.  Our sincere apologies.

With 12 minutes to go Vandi is up by 10.  All we can say is only 9% of the betting public went with Vandi yet the line kept going against them.  That means the high rollers went the way of Vandi and we go the way of the high rollers.  Who knows where the game ends up, but we would have gone casually with Vandi -5.

We were leaning Florida International, but that line went weird.  Indiana jumped to -10 with a  majority of bets, but only 57%.  We’re not sure where we would have ended up here, but we’re guessing an initial casual bet would have dipped to a nominal one for Florida International.

We were leaning Oregon State too.  We feel sick to our stomachs.

Live and learn.

So we jump ahead to tomorrow now.  Earlier than we like….

Friday 9pm EST  Kansas State +15  Casual bet only

 

Superbowl Postmortem

You’re welcome.

We went 9-2 (actually 10-1) in the postseason.  We correctly picked the Super Bowl.  We suggested the under as well though not counted in our statistics.

We leave the game feeling the same way as we did going in.  The Carolina Panthers are probably the more skilled team, but in a one game scenario the Denver Broncos would be able to present unique challenges to Cam Newton and the Panthers.

What gets lost in all the coverage of the game is just how good the Panthers defense played.  They had five sacks on only 28 Denver passing plays.  That is a sack on 18% of drop backs.  Denver had three fumbles while only losing one.  Carolina had four fumbles while losing three.  Each team had one interception.

The keys to the game are were where the turnovers took place.  The Broncos one defensive TD and another fumble recovery at the doorstep to another were the game.  The Panthers also were in FG range another time when losing the ball and missed a FG on another possession.

The punt return by Denver when the player unwisely didn’t call a fair catch and was rewarded for his bravery  by inexplicably poor tackling by Carolina’s special teams allowing for a long return into scoring territory.

If these teams played ten times, we’re confident Carolina would win by six or more points at least seven times.

But, they only play once.  Which is why we advised picking Denver.

You’re welcome.

Final Super Bowl thoughts

We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning.  We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.

We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it.  We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points.  It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.

Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points.  But this is only for one game.  We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset.  We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.

The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle.  We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.

As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position.  We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0.  We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10.  Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.

Six points is a lot.  You can still get in on Denver for +5′.

Do so.  Casual to moderate only, though.

Have fun!