NFL Playoffs! Divisional Round

These are four interesting games to watch!  Three exciting games capped off with an interesting game injuries galore.

Today you have the hot team Kansas City going into the cold team New England.  The Patriots have Brady which automatically goes in their favor.  The Chiefs blasted the Patriots last time they came into Foxboro.  A cold Packers team blasted a hot Redskins team just last week, so that weights on bettors minds as well.  But, the Redskins were weak.  The Patriots have injuries, though.

We think this is a good game and five points is probably right where the line should be.  However, we won’t be shocked if the Chiefs win the game outright.  So we’ll take the Chiefs.

Saturday  4:35pm  Kansas City Chiefs    +5   (moderate to casual bet)

The Cardinals blew out the Packers just  a few weeks ago.  But that helps give the Packers players a chip on their shoulder.  You can’t rely on the Cards getting two defensive TD’s again this week.  The Packers offensive line is as healthy as it has been since mid-season and much healthier than it was in the last meeting.  The Packers defense is better than people realize making the seven point spread quite attractive.

Saturday  8:15pm    Green Bay Packers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

Seattle had to travel cross country twice in the last eight days (three times in last ten days).  The kickoff is early.  Seattle is everyone’s darling right now.  People are dismissing the Vikings performance due to the weather.  Panthers are still undervalued.

Sunday  1:05pm    Carolina Panthers    -2′    (moderate to casual bet)

The Steelers limp into Denver.  Peyton Manning gives the Broncos a coach on the field.  Big Ben always plays electric when injured.  The Steelers have resolve.  This is a tough game to pick.  But it is the playoffs in the divisional round and a team called the Steelers is getting 7′ points.  How do you not take that?

Sunday  4:40pm    Pittsburgh Steelers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

We say moderate to casual on all of these because during the regular season we would tend to go casual on these because there would be other games to play.  But with just these we like to have a little more action going.  Just play what you’re comfortable with and have fun.

Good luck!

NCAA Championship Game

We finished the year strong and are sitting healthy.  We’ve a year of perspective to draw upon.  As many of you know, we typically shade the public because when the public goes one way, they create value the other direction.

However, sometimes the public is just flat out correct.  This happens more so in college than it does in the pros.  In the National Championship Game, early betting is going the way of the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The line started at 6 and is now up to 7.  Once it goes over 7 we envision money coming in on the Clemson Tigers.

We would normally shade towards Clemson in this situation generically speaking.  However, even though Clemson performed better than our expectations against Oklahoma and looked impressive, we provide some context.

Clemson plays in a weak conference.  The #2 and #3 teams (UNC and Florida State) in that conference were decimated in their bowl contests.  Oklahoma may have been the last team standing in the Big XII’s round-robbin schedule, but they were likely the 3rd best team in the conference.  Baylor was the best, but suffered an unusual amount of injuries to key personnel.  TCU was the 2nd best when they had Trevone Boykin, but losing him for a brief stretch proved their undoing.

If this was the old BCS system and it was one game with no playoffs between Clemson and Alabama, we’d take Clemson and the seven points.  Our reasoning is Clemson would have all these weeks to prepare for the game against one opponent.  But with Clemson having to prepare first for Oklahoma and only one week to primarily focus on Alabama, we feel the Jimmy’s and Joe’s will prove even more important than the X’s and O’s.

That all being said, we feel the line is about where it should be.  We suggest placing a casual bet on Alabama now before the line gets greater than 7.  If it drops below 7, we suggest upping your bet a bit to get that value.

Alabama Crimson Tide    -7   (casual bet only unless the line drops)

Sunday Funday!

The last week of the NFL regular season is always tricky when it comes to gambling.  Much of it comes down to motivation.  We’ve a few teams we like that we believe are motivated and have value in the betting lines.

The public was impressed by the Jets recently and the Jets are motivated to win and get in the playoffs.  But for the Bills who aren’t in the playoffs, knocking the Jets out of the playoffs is a nice consolation prize.

Philadelphia players are likely anxious to show they are a better team without Coach Kelly.  San Diego would like to knock the Broncos down to the 6th seed.

Here are our picks, all moderate wager amounts:

1:00pm    Philadelphia Eagles    +4′

1:00pm    Buffalo Bills    +3

4:25pm    San Diego Chargers    +9

We’ll also suggest a casual parlay on the two one o’clock games.

 

Bowl Game Action

We’ve a slew of games over the next few days.  We’ve plenty of leanings in games from a casual perspective, but only a couple we feel strongly about. In analyzing ourselves over the past year, we’ve refined out techniques to operate on quality rather than quantity.

We showed this in only choosing five NFL games Sunday and winning four of them.  We also said to load up on Baylor and were vindicated.

Here is what we suggest coming up:

Thursday    4pm    Oklahoma Sooners  -3′  (moderate bet)

Saturday     6:45pm    Texas Christian Horned Frogs  PK  (moderate bet)

We actually would lean heavier on TCU than Oklahoma.

We understand there are a bunch of games begging to have some action, so here is a list of our casual leanings – for entertainment purposes only.

Notre Dame +6′, Oklahoma State +7, Kansas State +13

Happy new year!

*******UPDATE****** 8:20am EST on 12/31

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, was arrested last night.  If he doesn’t play in the game, that changes everything.  If you’ve already bet on TCU, you may still have time to hedge before there is a line change.  You could bet Oregon now while it is still a pick and if Boykin doesn’t play, you can wait until TCU is getting about 2′ points and then take them.  You might hit in the middle and hit both ways.  We do think TCU can still win this game without Boykin, but we can’t predict the psychological impact his loss would have on the team.  Of course, TCU could do the “innocent until proven guilty” and allow him to play.

 

Tuesday Bowl Game

There are multiple games today but only one that catches our eye.

5:30pm  Baylor Bears  +3′  (heavy bet, you can also take the money line at +150)

 

We realize Baylor is decimated by injuries on offense.  They’re starting a 3rd string QB and are without their top WR and RT.  They’ve also lost 3 of their last 4 games.  But that was against Big XII competition.  This game is against ACC competition.  Baylor’s speed on defense will create some big plays and the Baylor running game will have consistent success.

No game is a lock with some things unpredictable such as turnovers, penalties, and field position.  But we feel good about this one.

Sunday Funday!

Today’s pickings are few.  Good luck!

1:00pm  New York Jets  +3  (casual bet)

1:00pm  Indianapolis Colts  +3  (moderate bet)

4:05pm  New Orleans Saints  -3  (moderate bet)

4:25pm  Saint Louis Rams  +12  (moderate bet)

8:30pm  New York Giants  +7  (casual bet)

Parlay them too.

The Unders in the Packers/Cardinals and Jaguars/Saints look enticing as the public is taking the Overs in both, but we’re holding off.

 

 

Christmas Eve Games

It has been a fun season.  As you know we shade the public.  The public has been on a roll the last week which means we’ve taken it on the chin.

We’ll take our lessons with us into next season as we refine the way we shade.  For now, here are some early Christmas presents for you:

College Bowl Games on Christmas Eve

Noon  MTSU  +4′  (casual bet only)

8pm   Cincinnati  +3  (casual bet only)

 

NFL

8:25pm  San Diego Chargers  +6  (heavy bet)

 

If you can explore a money line bet now on Baylor in their bowl game next week and they are shown as the underdog, get something on it now.

Merry Christmas!

Sunday Funday!

Season is winding down.  We need to go out with a bang.  It has been a fun season.  Up on NFL games, slightly down on college games.  About even overall.  Entertaining throughout.

Here we go!

1pm  Chi/Minn Under 44

1pm  Colts  -1

1pm  Atl/Jax  Under 48′

1pm  Ravens  +7

1pm  Buff/Wash  Under 45′

1pm  Titans  +14

1pm  Tenn/NE  Under 48

4:05pm  Browns  +15

4:05pm  Raiders  +4

4:05pm  GB/Oak  Under 47

4:25pm  Mia/SD  Under 46

4:25pm  49ers  +6′

8:30pm  Eagles  +4′

8:30pm  Phi/AZ  Over 51′

 

 

Sunday Funday w/ UFC snapshot

UFC Event

Conor is no longer a huge favorite.  Not a bad time to pick.  If you picked Aldo when the odds were good for you, you can hedge to the point you can’t lose.

Jeremy Stephens has a punchers chance with decent odds.  I think Holloway will win, but not a bad option.

Odds have swung back to have Rockhold the underdog.  Decent time to pay some cash on him.

NFL

1pm games

Sea/Bal Under 40′  (over seems to good to be true)

Baltimore +11

Tenn/NYJ  Under 43

Ind/Jax   Under 46

St. Louis +3

Alt/Car  Under 46

Buff/Phil  Under 47

Pitt/Cinci  Under 50′

4:05pm  Oak/Den  Under 43′

8:30pm Houston +4

 

 

Sunday Funday!

Wow!  I hope you didn’t mi$$ out on ye$terday’$ pick$ that were up on Friday night!

3-0 baby!!!!!  $$$$$$$$$$$$$

4-0 if you include the ca$ual play.

Today’s games:

1pm  Vikings  +2

1pm  Ravens/Dolphins  Under 43

1pm  Browns  +10  (casual play only)

1pm  Rams  +6

1pm  Bucs  +1

1pm  Falcons/Bucs  Under 45′

1pm  Jets/Giants  Under 47′

4:05pm  Chiefs/Raiders Under 45′

4:25pm  Eagles  +9

8:30pm  Colts/Steelers  Under 50