Sunday Funday!

The Big XII had some bad luck yesterday.  Oklahoma State had a BS untamed down ran against them that shouldn’t have occurred and gave up a game-winning/losing hail Mary and lateral to Central Michigan.  Then TCU stormed back against Arkansas and scored a nail in the coffin TD in the final minute to have it called back by a controversial call saying the WR who had been forced out of bounds by the defender by an inch had gone out on his own making him ineligible to touch the pass first.  They then had a game winning chip shot FG kicked too low and blocked.  TCU went on to lose in OT.  Once teams think the game is over and shut it down, it’s difficult to get that edge back.

We did well only because we loaded up on Vanderbilt.  That -3 line was so good I thought something might be up, but the public actually was going way in on MTSU.  Crazy!  Here’s where we’re at on the year.

Summary – for description see the About link at the top of the screen.

  • Load up            1-0
  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        2-2
  • Casual bets     7-9
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    10-12
  • +$24.1

Best thing about our system is it allows you to have fun even when you lose a majority of games (which won’t be a year long thing) as long as you win the big ones (which will be a year long thing).

NFL SUNDAY

1pm  NY Jets  +1′  Casual

1pm  Jaguars  +6  High stakes

4:05pm  Dolphins  +10′  Casual

4:25pm  Cowboys  +1  Nominal

8:30pm  Patriots  +7′  Solid

NFL Kickoff… Carolina’s revenge?

Those who were with us on our infamous playoff run know how high we were on Carolina as a team even though in the one-game format advised taking Denver.  We stated in a multiple game format we’d take Carolina.  Here we are…

We’ve a systematic way of making our picks which are based on value.  We typically avoid using strictly our football observations.  We normally have unanimity in our selections at the site, but not on this game.  Our system says the value is on Denver, but our football opinion says Carolina wipes the floor with them.

This is similar to our Notre Dame – Texas debate where we correctly went with our system and picked Texas.  But that was unanimous.  This isn’t.

But it is the first NFL game of the season and we need to make a pick.  Sometimes you have to get away from the system.  As editor, I’m the tie breaker.

Thursday  8:30pm  Carolina -3    Casual Only

Weekend Recap

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     4-4
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    5-5
  • +$3.85

We felt good about Ole Miss until they went on a turnover binge.  Not sure if FSU just got them that flustered, if it manifested itself among the team.  All in all a solid week.  We felt good about a few more games than we had the courage to move into the Solid category, but this early in the season we’re still feeling things out.

The NFL Season kicks off Thursday.  This is shaping up to one of those rare instances our own football opinion will go against our betting opinion.  We’ve been quite good about being objective in our analysis, but we feel strongly that Carolina is a better team than Denver.  Unfortunately so doesn’t much of the public.  The line is currently Carolina -3 and it may go further.  We’ve not taken an official stance yet, though, so time to come to our senses.

The way we’re leaning on NFL Sunday’s picks, readers are likely to roll their eyes, so our Thursday pick is important in keeping our credibility.  We hope to make our Thursday pick by tomorrow night.  Stay tuned!

 

Sunday Funday!

Yesterday was a fun introduction to football.  Great games with some big plays.  That Oklahoma – Houston game was shaping up to be one of the best games of all time, but the officials blew three huge calls all in Houston’s favor.  That tarnishes it a bit for us.  You know there will always be blown calls, you just hope they balance out or don’t impact the game too much.  But sometimes they do.  Anyways…  after our picks yesterday, here is where we stand for the season.

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        1-0
  • Casual bets     3-3
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    4-4

Based on our money scale, it equates to +$4 (includes juice deductions).

Don’t forget tonight’s game.   We casually got in on Texas at +4, but most places are at +3′ right now.  This game is weird to us.  We only shading the public.  It seems ND should be favored by more even though it is in Austin.  The value would seem to be on ND’s side and the public agrees.  But, how often is the public right?  So we’re going by way of Texas.

Also, a Monday preview.  Ole Miss +5′ – casual.

Recap:

Sunday  7:30pm  Texas  +4  casual.

Monday 8:00pm  Ole Miss  +5′  casual.

Saturday’s Slate

Season Stats

  • High stakes    0-0
  • Solid bets        0-0
  • Casual bets     1-0
  • Nominal bets 0-1
  • Overall bets    1-1

The biggest bets you win are the losses you didn’t play.  🙂

Early in the season we’ll have few games we feel strongly about.  There are too many unknowns.  Looking at tomorrow, here is where we’re at:

Noon   Bowling Green   +28  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Kent State  +22′  Casual Bet Only

3:30pm  Wisconsin  +11′  Solid

5:30pm  UNC  +3 ‘ Casual

8:00pm  New Mexico State  +9’  Casual Bet Only

9:00pm  Auburn  +9  Casual Bet Only

SUNDAY PREVIEW

7:30pm  Texas  +4  Casual Bet Only

 

Thursday’s Shame. Friday Fun.

We’re ashamed we missed tonight’s games.  We’re out of sync during the beginning of the season and didn’t adapt well.  We try to wait until game day since things can change so rapidly.

As we write this, our leanings look good.  Casual only as we normally are early in the year, but frustrating since we missed out on our own end let alone what we would have suggested to you.  Our sincere apologies.

With 12 minutes to go Vandi is up by 10.  All we can say is only 9% of the betting public went with Vandi yet the line kept going against them.  That means the high rollers went the way of Vandi and we go the way of the high rollers.  Who knows where the game ends up, but we would have gone casually with Vandi -5.

We were leaning Florida International, but that line went weird.  Indiana jumped to -10 with a  majority of bets, but only 57%.  We’re not sure where we would have ended up here, but we’re guessing an initial casual bet would have dipped to a nominal one for Florida International.

We were leaning Oregon State too.  We feel sick to our stomachs.

Live and learn.

So we jump ahead to tomorrow now.  Earlier than we like….

Friday 9pm EST  Kansas State +15  Casual bet only

 

Superbowl Postmortem

You’re welcome.

We went 9-2 (actually 10-1) in the postseason.  We correctly picked the Super Bowl.  We suggested the under as well though not counted in our statistics.

We leave the game feeling the same way as we did going in.  The Carolina Panthers are probably the more skilled team, but in a one game scenario the Denver Broncos would be able to present unique challenges to Cam Newton and the Panthers.

What gets lost in all the coverage of the game is just how good the Panthers defense played.  They had five sacks on only 28 Denver passing plays.  That is a sack on 18% of drop backs.  Denver had three fumbles while only losing one.  Carolina had four fumbles while losing three.  Each team had one interception.

The keys to the game are were where the turnovers took place.  The Broncos one defensive TD and another fumble recovery at the doorstep to another were the game.  The Panthers also were in FG range another time when losing the ball and missed a FG on another possession.

The punt return by Denver when the player unwisely didn’t call a fair catch and was rewarded for his bravery  by inexplicably poor tackling by Carolina’s special teams allowing for a long return into scoring territory.

If these teams played ten times, we’re confident Carolina would win by six or more points at least seven times.

But, they only play once.  Which is why we advised picking Denver.

You’re welcome.

Final Super Bowl thoughts

We could see the Carolina Panthers blowing out the Denver Broncos or the Broncos barely winning.  We don’t see the Broncos winning big, though.

We already posted our bet of Denver +6 and stand by it.  We went this direction simply from a betting stand-point as there is value in the points.  It is a gambling observation, not a football observation.

Football wise, we still feel that if these teams played ten times that the Panthers would cover more times than not – even at six points.  But this is only for one game.  We think Denver may have the defensive skilled players and the defensive game plan to pull of the upset.  We don’t think they will win, but we do think they’ll cover.

The Panthers defense is very good as well, but there are some weakness in the back-end and over the middle.  We can see Denver being able to exploit this part of the field enough to keep the game competitive and cover the six points.

As almost always, this game will come down to turnovers and field position.  We see Carolina settling for FG’s early and jumping out to an odd lead like 9-0.  We see them lengthening this late in the game to something like 22-10.  Then a late Denver touchdown for a the backdoor cover.

Six points is a lot.  You can still get in on Denver for +5′.

Do so.  Casual to moderate only, though.

Have fun!

 

 

Super Bowl notes

As we stated earlier we expected the line would climb to Carolina Panthers -6.  If you had gotten in early and taken Carolina at -4′, you could then take the Denver Broncos +6 in an attempt to hit in the middle.

A low-risk high-reward strategy.

Most of the early money is pouring in on Carolina.  This means there is value with Denver.    Our own football evaluations show Carolina should cover this game.  Peyton Manning is as immobile as Carson Palmer.  However, Carolina has shown a tendency to not put teams away other than the Arizona Cardinals.  And Denver has a championship caliber defense.

Since there is value on Denver right now, bets will begin coming in on them.  Plus, Manning’s popularity will bring in some late bets for Denver too.  If you’re taking Denver, now is the time.  You can still find them plus 6 in many places.  We could see this game closing at -4′ where it started.  But, if we were to bet, we’d say it will close at -5.

For the record:

Sunday  6:30pm  Denver Broncos  +6  (Casual to moderate bet.)

If you want to bet the over – under, take the Under 46 (casual.)

NFL Playoffs! Divisional Round

These are four interesting games to watch!  Three exciting games capped off with an interesting game injuries galore.

Today you have the hot team Kansas City going into the cold team New England.  The Patriots have Brady which automatically goes in their favor.  The Chiefs blasted the Patriots last time they came into Foxboro.  A cold Packers team blasted a hot Redskins team just last week, so that weights on bettors minds as well.  But, the Redskins were weak.  The Patriots have injuries, though.

We think this is a good game and five points is probably right where the line should be.  However, we won’t be shocked if the Chiefs win the game outright.  So we’ll take the Chiefs.

Saturday  4:35pm  Kansas City Chiefs    +5   (moderate to casual bet)

The Cardinals blew out the Packers just  a few weeks ago.  But that helps give the Packers players a chip on their shoulder.  You can’t rely on the Cards getting two defensive TD’s again this week.  The Packers offensive line is as healthy as it has been since mid-season and much healthier than it was in the last meeting.  The Packers defense is better than people realize making the seven point spread quite attractive.

Saturday  8:15pm    Green Bay Packers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

Seattle had to travel cross country twice in the last eight days (three times in last ten days).  The kickoff is early.  Seattle is everyone’s darling right now.  People are dismissing the Vikings performance due to the weather.  Panthers are still undervalued.

Sunday  1:05pm    Carolina Panthers    -2′    (moderate to casual bet)

The Steelers limp into Denver.  Peyton Manning gives the Broncos a coach on the field.  Big Ben always plays electric when injured.  The Steelers have resolve.  This is a tough game to pick.  But it is the playoffs in the divisional round and a team called the Steelers is getting 7′ points.  How do you not take that?

Sunday  4:40pm    Pittsburgh Steelers    +7′    (moderate to casual bet)

We say moderate to casual on all of these because during the regular season we would tend to go casual on these because there would be other games to play.  But with just these we like to have a little more action going.  Just play what you’re comfortable with and have fun.

Good luck!